Based on the historical data of lung cancer in China and the analysis of its related influencing factors

Abstract

Background

To analyze the long-term trend and spatial distribution of lung cancer incidence in China, and to analyze the potential influences of major environmental and socioeconomic factors.

Methods

Collect the data on the incidence of lung cancer in China over the years from 2010 to 2018, as well as the annual reports of the Chinese Cancer Registry during the same period and the environmental and socio-economic data of each tumor surveillance site. The jointpoint technique was used to analyze the long-term trend of lung cancer incidence. SatScan technology was used to visualize the spatial distribution of lung cancer incidence. A spatial regression model was used to quantitatively analyze the potential association between lung cancer incidence and major environmental and socioeconomic factors.

Results

During 2010–2018, the incidence of lung cancer in China showed an increasing trend. The primary cluster area with high incidence is located in the eastern coastal area of China, with a radius of 283.09 km. The primary cluster area with low incidence is located in northwest China, with a radius of 767.09 km. The primary cluster with high mortality is also located in the eastern coastal areas of China, with a radius of 283.09 km. The primary cluster with low mortality is located in northwest China, with a radius of 828.12 km. PM_2.5, annual mean temperature, and population density were positively associated with the incidence of lung cancer in men, while annual mean air temperature and population density were positively correlated with the incidence of lung cancer in women. PM_2.5 and population density were positively associated with male lung cancer mortality, while total grain production and population density were positively correlated with female lung cancer mortality.

Conclusions

From 2010 to 2018, The incidence of lung cancer is increasing in all regions of China, with a particularly high incidence in the eastern coastal areas and a low incidence in the western and southern parts. PM2.5, average annual temperature, population density, and total grain production were significantly associated with the incidence of lung cancer.