The widening gap between copper supply and demand will have an impact on economic development and energy futures

IF 7.4 2区经济学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Energy Research & Social Science Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-02 DOI:10.1016/j.erss.2026.104581

Adam C. Simon , Lawrence M. Cathles , Dan Wood , Morgan Bazilian

引用次数: 0

Abstract

Copper is essential for modern economies including: energy systems, data centers, defense applications, space cooling and heating, heavy industry, smart agriculture, transportation, and consumer goods. The presumption persists that the copper needed for all these purposes will be readily available. However, we show that copper is unlikely to be mined fast enough to meet all these needs in the short to medium term. Despite the recent and rapid copper price rise, we suggest that it will have to continue to rise significantly and provide robust price signals for a significant number of known copper deposits to be developed into mines. This price signal will need to be associated with permitting reforms to be successful in several cases. The widening gap should be a matter of political prioritization both in the USA and globally.

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铜供需差距的扩大将对经济发展和能源期货产生影响

铜对现代经济至关重要，包括：能源系统、数据中心、国防应用、空间制冷和供暖、重工业、智能农业、交通运输和消费品。这种假设坚持认为，所有这些用途所需的铜都很容易获得。然而，我们表明，铜的开采速度不太可能快到足以在中短期内满足所有这些需求。尽管最近铜价快速上涨，但我们认为，铜价必须继续大幅上涨，并为大量已知铜矿开发成矿山提供强有力的价格信号。在一些情况下，这种价格信号需要与允许改革取得成功联系起来。不断扩大的差距应该成为美国和全球政治优先考虑的问题。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Energy Research & Social Science ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES-

CiteScore

14.00

自引率

16.40%

发文量

441

审稿时长

55 days

期刊介绍： Energy Research & Social Science (ERSS) is a peer-reviewed international journal that publishes original research and review articles examining the relationship between energy systems and society. ERSS covers a range of topics revolving around the intersection of energy technologies, fuels, and resources on one side and social processes and influences - including communities of energy users, people affected by energy production, social institutions, customs, traditions, behaviors, and policies - on the other. Put another way, ERSS investigates the social system surrounding energy technology and hardware. ERSS is relevant for energy practitioners, researchers interested in the social aspects of energy production or use, and policymakers. Energy Research & Social Science (ERSS) provides an interdisciplinary forum to discuss how social and technical issues related to energy production and consumption interact. Energy production, distribution, and consumption all have both technical and human components, and the latter involves the human causes and consequences of energy-related activities and processes as well as social structures that shape how people interact with energy systems. Energy analysis, therefore, needs to look beyond the dimensions of technology and economics to include these social and human elements.