The cancellation risk of China's life insurance industry and its impact on the market

IF 3.4 3区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Asian Economics Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-29 DOI:10.1016/j.asieco.2026.102135

Shengnan Han

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Abstract

Policy cancellation remains a significant risk to life insurer solvency in digitally mediated markets. This study aimed to model and forecast lapse-driven solvency erosion using behavioral, institutional, and macroeconomic predictors structured into a unified econometric cascade. The study analysed 1559,661 policyholder records across 880 firm-quarter observations from 11 Chinese life insurers (2013–2023). Behavioural metrics (entropy, latency, notification fatigue) were derived from weekly user logs. Panel GMM, SVAR, Cox models, and regime-switching threshold regressions were implemented in Stata SE 18.0. Models were evaluated via log-likelihood, AIC/BIC, Wald tests, impulse response functions, and forecast error variance decomposition. Entropy (HR = 1.44), latency (HR = 1.27), and notification fatigue (HR = 1.52) significantly predicted lapse hazard. Lapse rates rose from 4.98 % to 8.47 % across CRI tertiles. Interaction terms (NFI × ACR, HR = 1.62) intensified risk. In GMM, CRI had a marginal solvency effect of 0.124; reserve mismatch and lapse rate had an adverse impact (–0.112, –0.087). SVAR attributed 42.1 % of solvency variance to CRI shocks; IRF peaked at quarter 4 (IRF = 0.056, p = 0.0034). A CRI threshold of 0.56 yielded a post-threshold reversal (β = –0.064, p = 0.0043). Predictive AUC = 0.772 with 84.3% TPR and 42-day median lead time. Behavioral metrics embedded in digital platforms enable early detection of solvency risk and provide intervention windows.

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中国寿险行业的注销风险及其对市场的影响

在数字中介市场中，保单取消仍然是寿险公司偿付能力的重大风险。本研究旨在利用行为、制度和宏观经济预测因子构建统一的计量经济学级联，对过失驱动的偿付能力侵蚀进行建模和预测。该研究分析了来自11家中国寿险公司（2013-2023年）880个公司季度的1559661份保单持有人记录。行为指标（熵、延迟、通知疲劳）来自每周用户日志。在Stata SE 18.0中实施面板GMM、SVAR、Cox模型和状态切换阈值回归。通过对数似然、AIC/BIC、Wald检验、脉冲响应函数和预测误差方差分解对模型进行评估。熵（HR = 1.44）、延迟（HR = 1.27）和通知疲劳（HR = 1.52）显著预测失效危害。CRI瓷砖的失效率从4.98 %上升到8.47 %。相互作用项（NFI × ACR, HR = 1.62）加剧了风险。在GMM中，CRI的边际偿付能力效应为0.124；储备错配和失效率对其有不利影响（-0.112,-0.087）。SVAR将42.1 %的偿付能力差异归因于CRI冲击；IRF在第4季度达到峰值（IRF = 0.056, p = 0.0034）。CRI阈值为0.56产生阈后逆转（β = -0.064, p = 0.0043）。预测AUC = 0.772，TPR为84.3%，中位提前期为42天。嵌入数字平台的行为指标能够早期发现偿付能力风险，并提供干预窗口。

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来源期刊

Journal of Asian Economics ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

4.70

自引率

9.40%

发文量

期刊介绍： The Journal of Asian Economics provides a forum for publication of increasingly growing research in Asian economic studies and a unique forum for continental Asian economic studies with focus on (i) special studies in adaptive innovation paradigms in Asian economic regimes, (ii) studies relative to unique dimensions of Asian economic development paradigm, as they are investigated by researchers, (iii) comparative studies of development paradigms in other developing continents, Latin America and Africa, (iv) the emerging new pattern of comparative advantages between Asian countries and the United States and North America.