Kuznets at -7000: Is there a really long-term relationship between growth and inequality?

Abstract

We use archaeological data on house sizes to generate estimates for economic inequality and economic growth from the Early Holocene to about the first millennium AD. At worldwide scales these variables are positively but loosely related; patterns are more divergent at regional levels. Cross-sectional regression shows that the formation of central-place hierarchies and development of landesque capital (indicating land-limited production) were positively linked to both economic growth and inequality; development of bronze smelting, animal management, and farming were also positively linked to growth. Iron smelting was linked to reduced inequality whereas presence of copper smelting and animals for portage were linked to reduced growth. We track the dynamics of inequality and growth through time in SW Asia/SE Europe, Britain, and SE North America, and analyze the first two with general additive models. Examination of three well-known interaction zones (Bronze Age West Asia, the Classic Maya world, and first-millennium-AD Britain) shows surprisingly regular transformations of the relationship between economic growth and inequality on millennial time scales. Overall our findings emphasize a strong cumulative component to both economic growth (productivity) and economic inequality over the substantial portions of the pre-capitalist Holocene that we analyze.