Health, incentives, and retirement choice: A life-cycle analysis from China

IF 5.9 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论 Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-20 DOI:10.1016/j.chieco.2026.102667

Chao Li , Han Cang

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Abstract

China's rapid population aging and ongoing pension reforms have fundamentally reshaped retirement behavior, yet the interaction between health dynamics and retirement incentives remains insufficiently understood. This paper develops a lifecycle model with endogenous retirement and health accumulation under the Basic Old-Age Insurance (BOAI) system calibrated to Chinese data. The model replicates observed retirement patterns and reveals that better health postpones retirement, while higher pension replacement ratios, amplified by a contribution-floor adjustment, encourage earlier labor exit, particularly for low-income workers. Health effects operate primarily through two channels: the income channel, where income decline increases the likelihood of triggering the adjustment mechanism and incentivizes early retirement; and the risk channel, where deteriorating health increases morbidity and mortality uncertainty and accelerates retirement. Counterfactual simulations reveal asymmetry in health effects: Lower personal account rate and individual productivity disproportionately affect unhealthy households, while increasing contribution rate primarily accelerates retirement among healthier workers.

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健康、激励和退休选择：来自中国的生命周期分析

中国快速的人口老龄化和正在进行的养老金改革从根本上重塑了退休行为，但健康动态和退休激励之间的相互作用仍未得到充分的了解。本文建立了基于中国数据的基本养老保险（BOAI）制度下具有内生退休和健康积累的生命周期模型。该模型重复了观察到的退休模式，并揭示了更好的健康状况推迟了退休时间，而更高的养老金替代比率（由于缴费下限调整而放大）鼓励劳动力提早退出，尤其是低收入工人。健康影响主要通过两个渠道发挥作用：收入渠道，其中收入下降增加了触发调整机制的可能性，并鼓励提前退休；以及风险渠道，健康状况恶化会增加发病率和死亡率的不确定性，并加速退休。反事实模拟揭示了健康效应的不对称性：较低的个人账户率和个人生产率不成比例地影响不健康的家庭，而提高缴费率主要加速了健康工人的退休。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

中国经济评论 ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

10.60

自引率

4.40%

发文量

380

期刊介绍： The China Economic Review publishes original works of scholarship which add to the knowledge of the economy of China and to economies as a discipline. We seek, in particular, papers dealing with policy, performance and institutional change. Empirical papers normally use a formal model, a data set, and standard statistical techniques. Submissions are subjected to double-blind peer review.