Induced seismicity in the southern Sichuan basin regulated by heterogeneous folding

Abstract

The potential for strong induced earthquakes in industrial production fields is largely controlled by the spatial arrangement of pre-existing faults shaped by regional tectonics. The 2021 Ms 6.0 Luxian earthquake in the southern Sichuan basin is an unusual case in which the seismogenic fault geometry deviates from the prevailing regional stress field and geological framework. To date, the seismogenic environment and the tectonic processes responsible for this destructive event remain poorly understood. In this study, we present a sedimentary shear-wave velocity model and eleven moment tensor solutions across the Luxian shale gas field, derived using data collected by our newly deployed seismic network. Our results reveal previously unrecognized, nearly reversed lateral variations in the amplitudes of synclinal low-velocity anomalies between terrestrial and marine strata, in addition to a first-order velocity contrast that correlates with the regional anticline–syncline architecture. The central Yujiasi syncline exhibits weaker low-velocity anomalies in the shallow terrestrial strata than areas to the north and south, reflecting lower strain intensity likely influenced by shallower décollement layers. Detected seismicity and anomalous reverse-faulting events with fold-parallel P-axes (including the Ms 6.0 earthquake) cluster mainly within two strain transition zones of the Yujiasi syncline, where stress is expected to concentrate and form fold-normal fault planes. These observations provide direct evidence that heterogeneous folding regulates the spatial distribution of induced seismicity in the southern Sichuan basin. They also help identify areas susceptible to induced seismic hazards and provide guidance for planning hydraulic fracturing operations in the region.