Mismatch between where solar projects are proposed and approved: the case of PV acceptance in the French Alps

Abstract

As many countries worldwide accelerate renewable energy deployment to meet climate targets, understanding the factors shaping acceptance of solar PV projects is essential for effective spatial planning. This study examined 236 utility-scale solar projects (>1 MWp) across various development stages in the French Alps, aiming to identify what influences market, socio-political, and community acceptance. This study adopts a mixed-method approach, combining spatial autocorrelation analysis, logistic regression, random forest modelling, and qualitative assessment of environmental impact reports, we explored the spatial patterns of project submission and approval. Market acceptance is primarily associated with economic factors: solar irradiance, slope, grid proximity, and land costs. Developers tend to avoid agricultural areas given regulatory constraints under the Mountain law, and rather favour forested or artificial surfaces. In contrast, socio-political acceptance is determined almost exclusively by environmental protection, with biophysical integrity being the only significant predictor of project approval, whereas socio-demographic characteristics of local populations show no measurable influence. Both submitted and approved projects display significant spatial clustering, with 51 % of recent projects (since 2020) concentrated in suitable areas representing just 9 % of the territory. This reflects a learning process among developers, who increasingly target areas with higher approval rates. While this suggests opportunities for targeted spatial planning via designated acceleration areas, it also raises concerns about energy justice and uneven community burdens. The spatial mismatch between market and socio-political acceptance criteria, and the dominance of environmental over social considerations, highlight the need for more transparent and inclusive permitting processes.