Modeling the emergence of divergent mutants of SARS-CoV-2, “Omicron-like events”: A time-to-event analysis

IF 4.8 3区医学 Q1 INFECTIOUS DISEASES

Journal of Infection and Public Health Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-08 DOI:10.1016/j.jiph.2026.103140

Haruka Hayashi, Yuta Okada, Taishi Kayano, Katsuma Hayashi, Tetsuro Kobayashi, Hiroshi Nishiura

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Background

During the COVID-19 pandemic, several divergent mutants including the Omicron (B.1.1.529) BA.1 variant emerged, having a distinct mechanism of emergence compared with pre-existing variants of concern. Apart from playing a major role in causing recurrent epidemic waves, the highly divergent mutants also contributed to changing the fate of the pandemic by exhibiting large differences in phenotypic characteristics among even closely related variants. Given that several different variants emerged during the pandemic, the present study aimed to quantitatively evaluate the risk of emergence of divergent severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) mutants and understand the mechanism of such emergence.

Methods

Upon identifying the emergence of phylogenetically distinct variants in “Omicron-like events” that have been recognized to date, a time-to-event analysis was carried out to estimate the monthly hazard rate of emergence. Four statistical models were established and compared using the Akaike Information Criterion.

Results

The model using the number of hospitalized cases was determined to be the best fit. The risk of Omicron-like events is not independent of time; instead, the monthly risk of emergence is likely to increase over time due to an increasing number of infection events.

Conclusions

Ongoing virus genomic surveillance is vital, and possible prevention among immunosuppressed individuals should be considered.

查看原文本刊更多论文

模拟SARS-CoV-2分化突变体的出现，“类欧米克隆事件”：时间到事件的分析。

背景：在2019冠状病毒病大流行期间，出现了包括Omicron (B.1.1.529) BA.1变体在内的几种不同的突变体，与先前存在的变体相比，它们具有不同的出现机制。高度分化的突变体除了在引起反复出现的流行病浪潮中发挥主要作用外，甚至在密切相关的变体之间也表现出表型特征的巨大差异，从而有助于改变大流行的命运。鉴于在大流行期间出现了几种不同的变体，本研究旨在定量评估发散性严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒2 （SARS-CoV-2）突变体出现的风险，并了解其出现的机制。方法：在确定迄今为止已识别的“类欧米克隆事件”中出现的系统发育上不同的变异后，进行了事件时间分析，以估计每月出现的危险率。采用赤池信息准则建立了4个统计模型并进行了比较。结果：采用住院病例数模型拟合效果最佳。类似欧米克隆事件的风险并非与时间无关；相反，由于感染事件数量的增加，每月出现的风险可能会随着时间的推移而增加。结论：持续的病毒基因组监测至关重要，应考虑在免疫抑制个体中进行可能的预防。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Journal of Infection and Public Health PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH -INFECTIOUS DISEASES

CiteScore

13.10

自引率

1.50%

发文量

203

审稿时长

96 days

期刊介绍： The Journal of Infection and Public Health, first official journal of the Saudi Arabian Ministry of National Guard Health Affairs, King Saud Bin Abdulaziz University for Health Sciences and the Saudi Association for Public Health, aims to be the foremost scientific, peer-reviewed journal encompassing infection prevention and control, microbiology, infectious diseases, public health and the application of healthcare epidemiology to the evaluation of health outcomes. The point of view of the journal is that infection and public health are closely intertwined and that advances in one area will have positive consequences on the other. The journal will be useful to all health professionals who are partners in the management of patients with communicable diseases, keeping them up to date. The journal is proud to have an international and diverse editorial board that will assist and facilitate the publication of articles that reflect a global view on infection control and public health, as well as emphasizing our focus on supporting the needs of public health practitioners. It is our aim to improve healthcare by reducing risk of infection and related adverse outcomes by critical review, selection, and dissemination of new and relevant information in the field of infection control, public health and infectious diseases in all healthcare settings and the community.