Trends in mathematical modeling of Lobesia botrana growth and voltinism: A comparative review

Abstract

Mathematical models are essential tools for understanding and predicting the development of insect pests under variable environmental conditions. In the case of Lobesia botrana, several modeling approaches have been proposed over the past few decades, ranging from empirical models based on thermal sums to mechanistic formulations (first-principles-based models) that incorporate physiological age, photoperiod, and host phenology. This review examines the primary modeling strategies developed for this species, highlighting conceptual advances, limitations, and areas where further integration is required. This paper examines how these models represent temperature-driven development, mortality, and stage transitions, as well as how they address biological processes such as overlapping generations, environmental plasticity, and developmental thresholds. It also highlights the challenges of transferring models between regions with different climatic and phenological conditions. As a case study, we compare the predictions of four representative models using capture data from a vineyard in the southern hemisphere for the 2020–2021 season. The results show that model performance depends not only on structure or complexity, but on the capacity to integrate biological knowledge in a modular and interpretable way. The importance of flexible easily applicable modeling frameworks that allow for adaptation to local conditions and enable transparent, ecologically and economically meaningful pest predictions is emphasized.