From demand deficit to development strategy: Navigating mini-grid viability in a fragile context1

Abstract

Four in five people without access to electricity live in Sub-Saharan Africa, where mini-grids are seen as a key solution. Yet investment remains constrained by low and unpredictable demand, especially in fragile settings. We study electricity demand in North Kivu (Democratic Republic of Congo), using pre-grid census and survey data combined with six years of post-connection consumption records. Five key findings emerge: (i) demand is highly heterogeneous across and within localities, with pockets of low uptake; (ii) pre-grid covariates explain some variation but have limited predictive power for realized connection and consumption; (iii) SMEs consume far more per connection than households while making up a small share of connections; (iv) consumption rises after connection and then plateaus, indicating slow movement up the energy ladder; (v) conflict shocks temporarily depress consumption, but usage rebounds, highlighting resilience in the face of insecurity. We further examine how an integrated, demand-building strategy by the local operator can partially mitigate these challenges. The case highlights that mini-grid viability in fragile settings may depend less on improved demand forecasting and more on the capacity to build and coordinate demand alongside infrastructure, with implications for policy design, risk-sharing finance, and the role of public and donor support.