Transitions in frailty states and associated factors: a multistate analysis of the Italian Longitudinal Study on Aging population-based cohort.

IF 3.2 Q2 GERIATRICS & GERONTOLOGY
Journal of Frailty & Aging Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-16 DOI:10.1016/j.tjfa.2025.100117
Lucia Galluzzo, Marianna Noale, Stefania Maggi, Marzia Baldereschi, Antonio Di Carlo, Nicola Veronese, Marco Silano
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Background: Frailty is recognized as a dynamic and potentially reversible process, but comprehensive studies on its progression/regression are rare.

Objective: To investigate the frequency and characteristics of frailty transitions over time in a representative sample of older Italians.

Design and participants: As secondary analysis of the Italian Longitudinal Study on Aging (ILSA) population-based cohort, we studied all participants (n = 1339; women 47.5 %, age 72.7 ± 5.1) with complete information on changes in frailty status (or death) between consecutive ILSA surveys (T0, T1, T2).

Measurements: Frailty was operationalized according to Fried phenotype, analysing transitions between frailty, or death, during T0-T1, T1-T2 (4-, 5-year length). Transition probability at 1, 3, 5 years was estimated through non-hidden continuous-time Markov models, with death as absorbing state. Factors influencing transitions were evaluated with Cox proportional Hazard Ratios (HR).

Results: We observed 1931 transitions between frailty states and 241 to death. The estimated probability of: maintaining a stable frailty status (∼80 % within 1 year) halved at 5 years; worsening increased steeply over time and was always greater among women; improvement/remission was twice higher at medium (about 20 % among Frail->preFrail women, preFrail->nonFrail men) than short term. Depressive symptoms were the strongest predictor of worsening [nonFrail->Frail: women HR 3.63 (95 %CI 1.45-9.10), men HR 3.78 (95 %CI 2.0-7.13)]. Not having a spouse/partner was associated with a 30 % reduced probability of pre-frailty remission in both sexes.

Conclusions: Our findings confirm the fluctuating nature of frailty with an ample chance of remission/improvement, highlighting the importance of a prompt, multidimensional preventive approach, including psycho-social dimensions.

Abstract Image

虚弱状态的转变及其相关因素:意大利老龄化人口纵向队列研究的多州分析。
背景:虚弱被认为是一个动态和潜在可逆的过程,但对其进展/回归的全面研究很少。目的:研究意大利老年人代表性样本中衰弱过渡的频率和特征。设计和参与者:作为意大利老龄化纵向研究(ILSA)基于人群队列的二次分析,我们研究了所有参与者(n = 1339;女性47.5%,年龄72.7±5.1),在连续的ILSA调查(T0, T1, T2)之间提供了完整的虚弱状态(或死亡)变化信息。测量:根据Fried表型对虚弱进行操作,分析在t1 - t1, T1-T2(4- 5年)期间虚弱或死亡之间的转变。以死亡为吸收状态,通过非隐式连续时间马尔可夫模型估计1、3、5年的过渡概率。采用Cox比例风险比(HR)评价影响转变的因素。结果:我们观察到1931例衰弱状态和241例死亡之间的转变。维持稳定虚弱状态(1年内约80%)的估计概率在5年减半;随着时间的推移,病情急剧恶化,而且在女性中总是更严重;中期的改善/缓解是短期的两倍(在体弱->前体弱女性和体弱->非体弱男性中约20%)。抑郁症状是病情恶化的最强预测因子[非虚弱->虚弱:女性HR 3.63 (95% CI 1.45-9.10),男性HR 3.78 (95% CI 2.0-7.13)]。没有配偶/伴侣与男女衰弱前缓解的可能性降低30%有关。结论:我们的研究结果证实了虚弱的波动性质,缓解/改善的机会很大,强调了及时、多维预防方法的重要性,包括心理社会层面。
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来源期刊
Journal of Frailty & Aging
Journal of Frailty & Aging GERIATRICS & GERONTOLOGY-
CiteScore
5.90
自引率
7.70%
发文量
54
期刊介绍: The Journal of Frailty & Aging is a peer-reviewed international journal aimed at presenting articles that are related to research in the area of aging and age-related (sub)clinical conditions. In particular, the journal publishes high-quality papers describing and discussing social, biological, and clinical features underlying the onset and development of frailty in older persons.          The Journal of Frailty & Aging is composed by five different sections: - Biology of frailty and aging In this section, the journal presents reports from preclinical studies and experiences focused at identifying, describing, and understanding the subclinical pathophysiological mechanisms at the basis of frailty and aging. - Physical frailty and age-related body composition modifications Studies exploring the physical and functional components of frailty are contained in this section. Moreover, since body composition plays a major role in determining physical frailty and, at the same time, represents the most evident feature of the aging process, special attention is given to studies focused on sarcopenia and obesity at older age. - Neurosciences of frailty and aging The section presents results from studies exploring the cognitive and neurological aspects of frailty and age-related conditions. In particular, papers on neurodegenerative conditions of advanced age are welcomed. - Frailty and aging in clinical practice and public health This journal’s section is devoted at presenting studies on clinical issues of frailty and age-related conditions. This multidisciplinary section particularly welcomes reports from clinicians coming from different backgrounds and specialties dealing with the heterogeneous clinical manifestations of advanced age. Moreover, this part of the journal also contains reports on frailty- and age-related social and public health issues. - Clinical trials and therapeutics This final section contains all the manuscripts presenting data on (pharmacological and non-pharmacological) interventions aimed at preventing, delaying, or treating frailty and age-related conditions.The Journal of Frailty & Aging is a quarterly publication of original papers, review articles, case reports, controversies, letters to the Editor, and book reviews. Manuscripts will be evaluated by the editorial staff and, if suitable, by expert reviewers assigned by the editors. The journal particularly welcomes papers by researchers from different backgrounds and specialities who may want to share their views and experiences on the common themes of frailty and aging.The abstracting and indexing of the Journal of Frailty & Aging is covered by MEDLINE (approval by the National Library of Medicine in February 2016).
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