BrDMrisc - Online Brazilian Risk Score for Incident Type 2 Diabetes - ELSA-Brasil Cohort.

IF 2.4 4区医学 Q3 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH

Revista de saude publica Pub Date : 2026-01-09 eCollection Date: 2026-01-01 DOI:10.11606/s1518-8787.2025059007088

Paula Andreghetto Bracco, Maria Inês Schmidt, Alvaro Vigo, José Geraldo Mill, Pedro Guatimosim Vidigal, Sandhi Maria Barreto, Mária de Fátima Sander Diniz, Maria de Jesus Mendes da Fonseca, Bruce Bartholow Duncan

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Abstract

Objective: To describe the Brazilian Diabetes Risk Score (BrDMrisc), an online calculator for estimating the risk of developing diabetes in 10 years, comparing it to other commonly used screening approaches to identify high-risk of future diabetes.

Methods: BrDMrisc is derived from 7.4-year follow-up data from ELSA-Brasil, a contemporary Brazilian cohort. Risk functions to predict future diabetes were based on socioeconomic, lifestyle, clinical, and laboratory variables, many of which are incorporated as continuous variables on a training sample including half of the analyzed cohort. We used ELSA-Brasil participant baseline data and incident diabetes cases detected during follow-up on the other half to compare the predictive capacity of BrDMrisc against traditional pre-diabetes screening strategies.

Results: BrDMrisc's 27 risk functions offer versatility to the online app, enabling estimates based on differing combinations of clinical and laboratory findings, which present more favorable diagnostic properties than other recommended approaches. For example, the BrDMrisc function based on clinical data plus fasting glucose, when compared with detection using solely the presence of impaired fasting glucose (≥ 100 mg/dL), identified a more manageable fraction (20.0% versus 40.6%) of the population as high risk, with those identified as presenting a two-fold risk of developing diabetes (28.5% versus 17.1%).

Conclusions: BrDMrisc diabetes risk calculator, based on data from a contemporary Brazilian cohort, is readily available online, versatile, and presents generally more favorable diagnostic properties than other commonly used screening strategies.

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BrDMrisc -在线巴西2型糖尿病风险评分- elsa -巴西队列。

目的：描述巴西糖尿病风险评分（BrDMrisc），一种用于估计10年内患糖尿病风险的在线计算器，并将其与其他常用的筛查方法进行比较，以确定未来糖尿病的高风险。方法：BrDMrisc来自ELSA-Brasil的7.4年随访数据，这是一个当代巴西队列。预测未来糖尿病的风险函数基于社会经济、生活方式、临床和实验室变量，其中许多变量作为连续变量纳入训练样本，包括分析队列的一半。我们使用elsa - brazil参与者基线数据和另一半随访期间检测到的糖尿病病例，比较BrDMrisc与传统糖尿病前期筛查策略的预测能力。结果：BrDMrisc的27个风险函数为在线应用程序提供了多功能性，可以根据临床和实验室结果的不同组合进行估计，这比其他推荐的方法更具有有利的诊断特性。例如，基于临床数据和空腹血糖的BrDMrisc功能，与单独使用空腹血糖受损（≥100 mg/dL）的检测相比，识别出更可控的一部分（20.0%对40.6%）的人群为高风险人群，而那些被确定为患糖尿病的两倍风险（28.5%对17.1%）。结论：BrDMrisc糖尿病风险计算器，基于当代巴西队列的数据，易于在线获取，功能广泛，并且通常比其他常用的筛查策略具有更有利的诊断特性。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Revista de saude publica PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH-

CiteScore

4.60

自引率

3.60%

发文量

审稿时长

4-8 weeks

期刊介绍： The Revista de Saúde Pública has the purpose of publishing original scientific contributions on topics of relevance to public health in general.