The recursive engagement economy of film success: Social media eWOM, box office sustainability, and marketing efficiency in China

Abstract

Social media-driven electronic Word-of-Mouth (e-WOM) has emerged as a crucial determinant of movie box-office success, particularly in digitally complex markets like China. Yet, the specific influence of China’s unique regulatory environment and distinct social media platforms on Word-of-Mouth dynamics remains underexplored. Addressing this critical gap, our research explores how online Word-Of-Mouth sentiment on Chinese platforms (Weibo, Douyin, Bilibili, and Xiaohongshu) mediates relationships between social media engagement and multifaceted film sustainability outcomes—including box office revenues, cultural value, and resource-efficient marketing practices. Utilizing a robust mixed-method design, we merge longitudinal sentiment data analysis (1.2 m user-generated posts) with Structural Equation Modeling based on survey responses from 925 film industry professionals. Granger causality tests robustly confirm that pre-release Word-Of-Mouth sentiment significantly predicts subsequent revenue trends without evidence of reverse causation, while Structural Equation Modeling analysis establishes online Word-Of-Mouth as an influential mediator that strengthens the linkage between initial social media engagement and sustained film profitability. This study introduces the “Recursive Engagement Economy of Film Success” framework, integrating Diffusion of Innovations and Social Influence theories to illustrate how Word-Of-Mouth triggers an enduring cycle of audience engagement, thereby decreasing marketing resource waste and prolonging revenue streams beyond initial theatrical releases. The research illuminate how China’s unique platform ecosystems prioritize authentic sentiment-driven virality rather than conventional Western influencer-centric strategies, enabling more streamlined, cost-effective promotional activities. This research provides practical guidance for filmmakers, marketers, and policymakers working within China’s competitive digital context, emphasizing transparency and consumer empowerment as key mechanisms for achieving lasting commercial, cultural, and environmental sustainability.