Does climate policy uncertainty impact gold-mining stock returns? International evidence

IF 4.5 4区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Commodity Markets Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-10 DOI:10.1016/j.jcomm.2026.100539

Carlos P. Maquieira , Boris Pastén-Henríquez

{"title":"Does climate policy uncertainty impact gold-mining stock returns? International evidence","authors":"Carlos P. Maquieira , Boris Pastén-Henríquez","doi":"10.1016/j.jcomm.2026.100539","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This research analyzes the association between gold-mining stock returns and climate policy uncertainty (CPU) and examines whether CPU moderates the relationship between gold returns and gold-mining stock returns. Using monthly data for 68 gold-mining companies from nine countries over the period 2011–2022, we report that CPU exerts a significant and adverse effect on gold-mining stock returns, diminishing the positive impact of gold returns on gold stock performance. In contrast, Global Economic Policy Uncertainty (GEPU), Monetary Policy Uncertainty (MPU), and Fiscal Policy Uncertainty (FPU) are positively associated with gold-mining stock returns and strengthen the relationship between gold returns and mining stock performance, whereas Local Economic Policy Uncertainty (LEPU) does not exhibit a significant association. The results remain robust after correcting for endogeneity using an instrumental variable approach. Extending the analysis to energy transition metals, including copper, lithium, nickel, and cobalt, we find that climate policy uncertainty is positively associated with stock returns in these sectors and depending on time windows we find a negative impact of CPU on the link between metal returns and metal-stock returns.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":45111,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Commodity Markets","volume":"41 ","pages":"Article 100539"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5000,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Commodity Markets","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405851326000012","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"2026/1/10 0:00:00","PubModel":"Epub","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"BUSINESS, FINANCE","Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Abstract

This research analyzes the association between gold-mining stock returns and climate policy uncertainty (CPU) and examines whether CPU moderates the relationship between gold returns and gold-mining stock returns. Using monthly data for 68 gold-mining companies from nine countries over the period 2011–2022, we report that CPU exerts a significant and adverse effect on gold-mining stock returns, diminishing the positive impact of gold returns on gold stock performance. In contrast, Global Economic Policy Uncertainty (GEPU), Monetary Policy Uncertainty (MPU), and Fiscal Policy Uncertainty (FPU) are positively associated with gold-mining stock returns and strengthen the relationship between gold returns and mining stock performance, whereas Local Economic Policy Uncertainty (LEPU) does not exhibit a significant association. The results remain robust after correcting for endogeneity using an instrumental variable approach. Extending the analysis to energy transition metals, including copper, lithium, nickel, and cobalt, we find that climate policy uncertainty is positively associated with stock returns in these sectors and depending on time windows we find a negative impact of CPU on the link between metal returns and metal-stock returns.

查看原文本刊更多论文

气候政策的不确定性会影响金矿股的回报吗？国际证据

本文分析了气候政策不确定性（CPU）与金矿股收益之间的关系，并考察了CPU是否调节了黄金收益与金矿股收益之间的关系。利用2011-2022年9个国家68家金矿公司的月度数据，我们报告了CPU对金矿股收益的显著不利影响，削弱了黄金收益对黄金股绩效的积极影响。相反，全球经济政策不确定性（GEPU）、货币政策不确定性（MPU）和财政政策不确定性（FPU）与金矿股收益呈正相关，并强化了黄金收益与矿业股绩效的关系，而地方经济政策不确定性（LEPU）不表现出显著的关联。使用工具变量方法校正内生性后，结果仍然稳健。将分析扩展到能源过渡金属，包括铜、锂、镍和钴，我们发现气候政策的不确定性与这些行业的股票回报呈正相关，并且根据时间窗口，我们发现CPU对金属回报和金属-股票回报之间的联系产生了负面影响。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

求助全文

约1分钟内获得全文求助全文

来源期刊

Journal of Commodity Markets Multiple-

CiteScore

5.70

自引率

2.40%

发文量

期刊介绍： The purpose of the journal is also to stimulate international dialog among academics, industry participants, traders, investors, and policymakers with mutual interests in commodity markets. The mandate for the journal is to present ongoing work within commodity economics and finance. Topics can be related to financialization of commodity markets; pricing, hedging, and risk analysis of commodity derivatives; risk premia in commodity markets; real option analysis for commodity project investment and production; portfolio allocation including commodities; forecasting in commodity markets; corporate finance for commodity-exposed corporations; econometric/statistical analysis of commodity markets; organization of commodity markets; regulation of commodity markets; local and global commodity trading; and commodity supply chains. Commodity markets in this context are energy markets (including renewables), metal markets, mineral markets, agricultural markets, livestock and fish markets, markets for weather derivatives, emission markets, shipping markets, water, and related markets. This interdisciplinary and trans-disciplinary journal will cover all commodity markets and is thus relevant for a broad audience. Commodity markets are not only of academic interest but also highly relevant for many practitioners, including asset managers, industrial managers, investment bankers, risk managers, and also policymakers in governments, central banks, and supranational institutions.