Burden of Male Infertility Among Men Aged 20–49 Years in Asia From 1990 to 2021 and Prediction to 2040: A Global Burden of Disease Study

Abstract

Background

This study aims to investigate the epidemiological data and trends of male infertility aged 20–49 years in Asia from 1990 to 2021.

Methods

Data for this study was obtained from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 public database. Trends in prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), and age-standardized YLD rate (ASYR), along with their correlation with the sociodemographic index (SDI), were analyzed. A join-point regression model was developed to assess trends across different time segments. In addition, an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was employed for predictions extending to 2040.

Results

From 1990 to 2021, the burden of male infertility among individuals aged 20–49 years increased both globally and across all Asian regions. In East Asia, the burden was the highest in 1990 and had an initial rapid escalation through the early 1990s, then declined steadily since 1995. South and Southeast Asia experienced significantly accelerating upward trends, with South Asia saw the steepest increases. High-income Asia Pacific and Central Asia sustained relatively low disease burdens and stable trends throughout the study period.

Conclusion

The disease burden in East Asia, South Asia, and Southeast Asia remains significant, with a notable upward trend observed in South Asia and Southeast Asia. Targeted interventions and policies are needed based on the epidemiological characteristics and changing trends of different Asian regions.