Asymmetric Impact of Urbanization on Food Security in Africa: Exploring the Moderating Role of Information and Communication Technology Using a Panel Quantile ARDL-PMG Approach

Abstract

Africa's sustainable development is challenged by rapid urbanization and persistent food insecurity. It is critically important to understand how digital innovation can be used to shape the relationship between urbanization and food security. This study investigates the asymmetric impact of urbanization on food security in Africa, emphasizing the moderating role of Information and Communication Technology (ICT). Using a panel quantile Autoregressive Distributed Lag with a Pooled Mean Group (PQARDL-PMG) approach on data from 41 African countries (1990–2023), we examine how urbanization and ICT jointly influence the four dimensions of food security across varying contexts. Results reveal that increases in urbanization positively affect food availability and accessibility, while declines in urbanization significantly weaken utilization and stability. ICT improves food security outcomes, but its interaction with urbanization reveals asymmetric effects. Rising urbanization combined with ICT shows negative effects on food availability at higher quantiles, while ICT mitigates the adverse impacts of urban decline by improving availability, accessibility, and stability. Policy implications call for reorienting urban strategies to prioritize food systems, including protecting peri-urban farmland and strengthening rural-urban linkages through digitally enabled infrastructure.