Surveillance-based insights into mosquito-borne disease trends: Implications for public health in Poland and Europe (2018–2024)

Abstract

Introduction

Mosquito-borne diseases continue to pose a significant global health challenge, driven by environmental, climatic, and socio-demographic factors. This study investigates the epidemiological trends of malaria, dengue fever, chikungunya, and West Nile virus (WNV) in Poland and Europe, from 2018 to 2024, with a focus on regional differences, local transmission, and temporal dynamics.

Material and methods

Data were obtained from national and international surveillance systems. Annual case counts for each disease, including autochthonous cases, were analyzed using Poisson regression models, with calendar year as a continuous predictor. Trends were assessed for Poland (2018–2024) and Europe (2018–2023).

Results

In Poland, 521 cases were reported across the study period, with a significantly increasing trend in total case counts for malaria, dengue, and chikungunya. WNV showed a non-significant increase. In Europe, a significant reduction in total cases was observed from 2018 to 2023, including declines in malaria, chikungunya, and WNV, while dengue cases showed a modest but significant increase. Analysis of autochthonous cases revealed a significant overall decrease in malaria and WNV, but a significant increase in dengue cases.

Conclusions

The results highlight contrasting regional and transmission-specific trends, with increasing incidence in Poland, declining total and local transmission in Europe, and a rise in autochthonous dengue cases. These findings underscore the importance of strengthening surveillance and response strategies tailored to the dynamic patterns of vector-borne diseases.