Understanding the evolution of municipal solid waste incineration emissions in China: Patterns, determinants, and control measures

Abstract

Municipal solid waste (MSW) incineration has become central to China's waste management strategy, driven by rapid urbanization, environmental constraints, and energy recovery goals. This study evaluates the evolution of MSW incineration emissions between 2005 and 2020 across 510 waste-to-energy (WTE) facilities nationwide, using a multi-pollutant framework involving nine major emissions. These pollutants include NO_x, SO₂, PM, HCl, CO, dioxins, Hg, Cd + Tl, and Sb + As + Pb + Cr + Co + Cu + Mn + Ni. The Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) was used to explore the impact of socioeconomic factors, treatment structures, and emission intensities. The results reveal a multi-phase, policy-driven emission trajectory shaped by technological transformation, regulatory milestones, and regional inequalities. Three policy phases were identified, corresponding to national Five-Year Plans (FYPs). During the 13^th FYP (2016–2020), emission intensity (EI) reductions accounted for over 80 % of net SO₂ and PM emission declines, and more than 60 % for dioxins and HCl, driven by advanced flue gas treatment and moving grate (MG) incinerator adoption. Despite national improvements, regional disparities persist. Larger incinerators (≥1000 t/d) showed 40–60 % lower emissions than smaller ones (≤300 t/d), while NO_x concentrations remained high across all plant sizes. This research highlights the critical role of policy and technology in driving emission reductions, while also exposing governance and infrastructure gaps that undermine progress.