Flight diversions and recovery decisions: Evidence from China

Abstract

Flight diversions represent a significant challenge to the operational resilience of air transport systems, leading to substantial costs and disruptions for airlines, airports, and passengers. A typical diversion involves two critical stages: alternate landing and subsequent flight recovery. When recovery fails, cancellations not only disrupt airline operations and passenger itineraries but also strain airport ground facilities. This study employs spatial analysis and discrete choice modeling to analyze diversion patterns and recovery outcomes, using a dataset of commercial passenger flight diversions across mainland China. The findings reveal several key insights. First, major airports, particularly those serving as hubs or base airports for airlines, are preferred for alternate landings due to their robust ground support capabilities. While multiple-airport regions (MARs) are strategic receivers of diverted flights, the role of smaller airports within these systems requires further enhancement. Second, the recovery rate of diverted flights is strongly influenced by the airline’s business model. Major full-service carriers (FSCs) demonstrate higher recovery rates, whereas low-cost carriers (LCCs) and non-major carriers are more likely to cancel flights. Third, diversions within MARs significantly reduce recovery rates, underscoring the operational complexities of these regions. These findings offer practical insights for optimizing diversion protocols, enhancing MAR infrastructure, and formulating policies that balance network-wide efficiency with passenger-centric resilience in air transport systems.