Dynamic hazard assessment of compound drought and heat events in maize based on a soil-temperature-integrated index in Songliao Plain

IF 6.7 1区农林科学 Q1 AGRONOMY

European Journal of Agronomy Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-07 DOI:10.1016/j.eja.2026.127984

Xianwei Lu , Sicheng Wei , Ying Guo , Cha Ersi , Dan Chen , Ziyuan Zhou , Yue Li , Yuping Dong , Zhijun Tong , Xingpeng Liu , Jiquan Zhang , Chunli Zhao , Yanxia Zhao

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Compound drought and heat events (CDHEs) pose severe threats to food security, yet the role of soil temperature in event occurrence and crop stress has been largely overlooked. Using ERA5-Land and SPEI-GD datasets (1982–2021), we developed a soil-temperature-integrated Compound Drought and Heat Event Index (CDHEI) to make dynamic hazard assessment of compound drought and heat events in maize by combining air temperature, soil temperature, soil moisture, and meteorological drought indices. CDHEs during maize growth stages in the Songliao Plain were identified using run theory, and their spatiotemporal characteristics and hazard levels were systematically assessed. The results showed that CDHEs were mainly concentrated in the northwest and southwest regions of the Songliao Plain, with around year 2000 identified as a critical breakpoint, after which their frequency and intensity increased significantly in the 21st century. CDHEI was strongly correlated with maize yield loss, with the maximum correlation coefficient reaching 0.749 (p < 0.05), particularly in the southwestern and northwestern regions. Compared with existing indices, specifically the CDHEI without the soil temperature component (CDHEI_noST), the Compound Events Toolbox and Dataset (CETD), and the Compound Drought and Heat Magnitude Index (CDHMI), the correlation increased by 13 % to over 100 %, highlighting the superior capability of CDHEI in capturing yield impacts. Dynamic hazard assessment further identified Baicheng, Songyuan, and surrounding areas as high-hazard-level zones. Breakpoint-year analysis also revealed that the soil temperature (SSTI) had the highest importance in event evolution, underscoring the dominant role of soil thermal anomalies in the intensification of CDHEs. Overall, this study highlights the indispensable role of soil processes in compound extreme event monitoring and provides a scientific basis for agricultural risk assessment and regional adaptation strategies.

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基于土壤温度综合指数的松辽平原玉米干热复合事件动态危害评价

复合干热事件对粮食安全构成严重威胁，但土壤温度在事件发生和作物胁迫中的作用在很大程度上被忽视。利用ERA5-Land和SPEI-GD数据集（1982-2021），综合气温、土壤温度、土壤水分和气象干旱指标，建立了土壤温度一体化的玉米复合干热事件指数（CDHEI），对玉米复合干热事件进行动态危害评价。利用run理论对松辽平原玉米生育期的CDHEs进行了识别，并对其时空特征和危害程度进行了系统评价。结果表明：松辽平原高震主要集中在西北和西南地区，2000年前后为高震发生的关键断点，此后高震发生的频率和强度在21世纪显著增加；CDHEI与玉米产量损失呈显著正相关，相关系数最高可达0.749 (p <； 0.05)，在西南和西北地区尤为显著。与不含土壤温度分量的CDHEI指数（cdhe_nost）、复合事件工具箱和数据集（CETD）和干热复合强度指数（CDHMI）相比，相关性提高了13 %至100 %以上，显示了CDHEI在捕捉产量影响方面的优势。动态危险区评价进一步将白城、松原及周边地区确定为高危险区。断点年分析还显示，土壤温度在事件演化中的重要性最高，表明土壤热异常在CDHEs的加剧中起主导作用。总体而言，本研究突出了土壤过程在复合极端事件监测中不可或缺的作用，为农业风险评估和区域适应策略提供了科学依据。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

European Journal of Agronomy 农林科学-农艺学

CiteScore

8.30

自引率

7.70%

发文量

187

审稿时长

4.5 months

期刊介绍： The European Journal of Agronomy, the official journal of the European Society for Agronomy, publishes original research papers reporting experimental and theoretical contributions to field-based agronomy and crop science. The journal will consider research at the field level for agricultural, horticultural and tree crops, that uses comprehensive and explanatory approaches. The EJA covers the following topics: crop physiology crop production and management including irrigation, fertilization and soil management agroclimatology and modelling plant-soil relationships crop quality and post-harvest physiology farming and cropping systems agroecosystems and the environment crop-weed interactions and management organic farming horticultural crops papers from the European Society for Agronomy bi-annual meetings In determining the suitability of submitted articles for publication, particular scrutiny is placed on the degree of novelty and significance of the research and the extent to which it adds to existing knowledge in agronomy.