The Russian War in Ukraine and the Visegrád Group: What Impact on Energy Transformation?

Abstract

This study examines the impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on energy transformation and public opinion within the Visegrád Group (V4) countries—Czechia, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia. Employing the Multi-Level Perspective (MLP) framework on sociotechnical transitions, the research investigates how macro-level disruptions, meso-level regime adaptations, and micro-level innovations interact to reshape energy systems. The study focuses on public attitudes toward reducing dependency on Russian energy and investing in renewables, contextualized through the Eurobarometer survey data (Wave 98.2, 2023). Bayesian multilevel logistic regressions were applied to evaluate the relationships between perceptions of war-related consequences (security, economic impacts) and attitudes toward energy policies. Findings reveal strong public support in Poland and Hungary for reducing reliance on Russian hydrocarbons and adopting renewable energy, while Czechia and Slovakia show moderate support. Security concerns were identified as a key driver of pro-renewable sentiments, particularly among younger cohorts and those perceiving war-related threats. The study highlights how geopolitical shocks can catalyze energy policy shifts, though entrenched sociotechnical regimes present challenges. Practical implications include leveraging public support for renewables to accelerate European Union (EU) energy transition goals. This research contributes novel insights into the interplay between energy transformation and geopolitical crises, emphasizing the V4’s pivotal role in Europe’s green transition.