Economic consequences of the 1933 Soviet famine

Abstract

This article studies the changes in the Soviet population and the urbanization patterns after the 1933 famine. It documents several new facts. (1) Although most of the direct victims lived in rural areas, the famine is associated with persistent differences in the urban population. Comparing more affected areas to less affected ones, in the long run, there are no differences in the rural population, but urban settlements in more affected areas are comparatively smaller. (2) Consistent with this pattern, in the long run, there are no differences in grain production and sown area, but electricity production is relatively smaller in more affected areas. (3) These differences were not planned in the First Five-Year Plan (1928–1933), but subsequent plans may have incorporated and exacerbated the differences in urbanization that occurred during the years of rural crisis. The paper argues that labor shortages during the crucial years of rapid industrialization hindered the development of cities in famine-stricken areas. Thus, the timing of the shock to the population is important. While established urban networks tend to recover from large temporary negative shocks, labor shortages during construction and rapid growth might have a permanent negative impact.