Spatial and socioeconomic factors of distributed photovoltaic generation in Minas Gerais

IF 13.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Economics Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-30 DOI:10.1016/j.eneco.2025.109121

Guilherme Perobelli Salgueiro , Fernando Salgueiro Perobelli , Edson Paulo Domingues , Victor Eduardo de Melo Valério

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Abstract

This article analyzes the determinants and spatial diffusion of residential distributed photovoltaic (PV) adoption in Minas Gerais, Brazil. Comprising 853 municipalities with deep socioeconomic disparities, the state serves as a unique case study for technology diffusion. The hypothesis of spatial randomness for the density of PV installations (N/Km²) was tested and rejected using Moran's I, revealing distinct clusters of high and low adoption. Employing a Spatial Durbin Model (SDM) to capture both direct and spillover effects, the results demonstrate that socioeconomic factors, specifically average wage, tertiary education, and urbanization are the primary drivers of diffusion. Crucially, the study identifies an ‘efficiency gap’ in the northern region of the state: while possessing the highest solar irradiation resources, these municipalities exhibit low adoption rates due to structural socioeconomic barriers, indicating that physical potential is a necessary but insufficient condition for diffusion. These findings suggest that public policies must go beyond technical incentives to address financial and educational constraints to promote equitable energy transition.

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米纳斯吉拉斯州分布式光伏发电的空间和社会经济因素

本文分析了巴西米纳斯吉拉斯州居民分布式光伏（PV）采用的决定因素和空间扩散。该州由853个城市组成，社会经济差距很大，是技术扩散的独特案例研究。使用Moran’s I对光伏装置密度（N/Km2）的空间随机性假设进行了测试和否定，揭示了不同的高采用率和低采用率集群。利用空间德宾模型（SDM）捕捉直接效应和溢出效应，结果表明，社会经济因素，特别是平均工资、高等教育和城市化是扩散的主要驱动因素。至关重要的是，该研究确定了该州北部地区的“效率差距”：虽然拥有最高的太阳辐照资源，但由于结构性的社会经济障碍，这些城市的采用率较低，这表明物理潜力是扩散的必要条件，但不是充分条件。这些研究结果表明，公共政策必须超越技术激励，解决财政和教育方面的限制，以促进公平的能源转型。

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来源期刊

Energy Economics ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

18.60

自引率

12.50%

发文量

524

期刊介绍： Energy Economics is a field journal that focuses on energy economics and energy finance. It covers various themes including the exploitation, conversion, and use of energy, markets for energy commodities and derivatives, regulation and taxation, forecasting, environment and climate, international trade, development, and monetary policy. The journal welcomes contributions that utilize diverse methods such as experiments, surveys, econometrics, decomposition, simulation models, equilibrium models, optimization models, and analytical models. It publishes a combination of papers employing different methods to explore a wide range of topics. The journal's replication policy encourages the submission of replication studies, wherein researchers reproduce and extend the key results of original studies while explaining any differences. Energy Economics is indexed and abstracted in several databases including Environmental Abstracts, Fuel and Energy Abstracts, Social Sciences Citation Index, GEOBASE, Social & Behavioral Sciences, Journal of Economic Literature, INSPEC, and more.