A Decade of Change and Future Prospects of Organic Farming in Iran Using the Multi-Round Delphi Method

Abstract

In recent years, the concept of organic farming has gained increasing attention due to its reduced use of agrochemicals, ecological preservation, and contribution to sustainability. However, the analysis of data from 2013 to 2021 shows that organic agriculture in Iran remained almost unchanged until 2016, with approximately 18,871 hectares under cultivation. After 2016, a period of stagnation ensued, followed by a decline, suggesting a regression rather than a progression in the sector. The present study aims to identify and evaluate the primary indicators influencing the development of organic agriculture in Iran by leveraging the expertise of subject-matter experts. To this end, a four-round, two-phase Delphi method was employed to identify, refine, and validate the indicators. This method entailed conducting interviews with Iranian organic farming experts representing diverse organizations and sectors within organic agriculture. The identified factors were then grouped using the 7S model (Strategy, Structure, System, Skills, Staff, Style, and Shared Values). A nonparametric test was used to determine changes in these indicators over the past decade. The study's findings suggest that structural enhancements, increased knowledge, and growing societal awareness of sustainability have exerted a favorable influence. Nevertheless, systemic and policy constraints have curtailed the comprehensive advancement of organic farming. This research offers significant insights to the dynamics of organic agriculture in Iran and provides concrete recommendations for promoting its development in the future.