Identification and dynamic simulation of electric-vehicle charging demand drivers: a high-order hybrid method

IF 6.2 2区工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS

Transport Policy Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-25 DOI:10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103978

Jing Liu , Wei Gao , Xuewen Zhang , Jie Zhang

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Rapid expansion of electric vehicles has made charging demand highly variable in space and time, yet its coupled drivers are poorly understood. We develop a three-stage embedded hybrid method to close this gap. Sixteen spatial, facility, pricing, and weather variables are first identified. Their causal weights are quantified through a Pearson correlation–transfer entropy–DEMATEL sequence. Finally, the weighted relations are embedded in a complex-network framework to perform node-failure, centrality, edge-weight sensitivity, and threshold-based dynamic-pricing simulations. A Shenzhen charger dataset validates the model. Results reveal that charging demand is jointly governed by spatial layout, economic regulation, and environmental conditions. Traffic adjacency, charger count, and occupancy dominate demand, whereas real-time price and inter-station distance, despite weak causality, hold the highest centrality and sensitivity. Dynamic pricing cuts peaks by ∼20 % in stable periods but fails under extreme shocks. We recommend mixed stations and coordinated pricing, demand-response, and storage strategies to enhance network resilience.

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电动汽车充电需求驱动因素识别与动态仿真：一种高阶混合动力方法

电动汽车的快速扩张使得充电需求在空间和时间上具有高度的可变性，但人们对其耦合驱动因素的理解却很少。我们开发了一种三阶段嵌入式混合方法来缩小这一差距。首先确定16个空间、设施、价格和天气变量。它们的因果权重通过皮尔逊相关-转移熵- dematel序列量化。最后，将加权关系嵌入到复杂网络框架中，以执行节点故障、中心性、边权敏感性和基于阈值的动态定价模拟。深圳充电器数据集验证了该模型。结果表明，城市充电需求受空间布局、经济调控和环境条件的共同制约。交通邻接性、充电器数量和占用率主导需求，而实时价格和站间距离尽管因果关系较弱，但具有最高的中心性和敏感性。在稳定时期，动态定价削减的峰值为20%，但在极端冲击下则失效。我们建议采用混合站和协调定价、需求响应和存储策略来增强网络弹性。

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来源期刊

Transport Policy Multiple-

CiteScore

12.10

自引率

10.30%

发文量

282

期刊介绍： Transport Policy is an international journal aimed at bridging the gap between theory and practice in transport. Its subject areas reflect the concerns of policymakers in government, industry, voluntary organisations and the public at large, providing independent, original and rigorous analysis to understand how policy decisions have been taken, monitor their effects, and suggest how they may be improved. The journal treats the transport sector comprehensively, and in the context of other sectors including energy, housing, industry and planning. All modes are covered: land, sea and air; road and rail; public and private; motorised and non-motorised; passenger and freight.