Officials’ Early Life Experience and Policymaking: The Enduring Impact of China's Great Famine on Government Objectives

Abstract

This study examines how officials’ heterogeneous preferences, particularly shaped by traumatic childhood experiences, impact government policy decisions. Leveraging China's Great Famine as a natural experiment, we apply a cohort difference-in-differences (DID) approach to analyze the effect of officials’ exposure to famine on government objectives in their jurisdictions. Results show that famine-exposed officials, particularly those aged five or older during the crisis (a formative period for value formation), systematically set lower economic growth targets, reflecting trauma-induced risk aversion rather than diminished administrative capacity. Two key findings support this interpretation: (1) Jurisdictions led by famine-exposed officials achieve comparable economic outcomes, and (2) these officials allocate greater resources to social stability expenditures. The evidence highlights how early-life adversity embeds risk-averse heuristics in bureaucratic decision-making, with lasting implications for institutional governance.