Prediction of urban carbon peak by considering water-energy-carbon nexus of land use: The case of Zhengzhou, China

Abstract

Predicting urban carbon peak by considering water-energy-carbon nexus of land use has great significance for improving resources utilization efficiency and realizing carbon peak target. Previous studies were focused on multi-factors nexus evaluation from the perspective of industries or sectors, and less attention was paid to carbon emission prediction by considering multi-factors nexus from the perspective of land use. The paper employed the coupling coordination degree model to measure the water-energy-carbon nexus in Zhengzhou City and used the method of system dynamics to predict water-energy consumption and carbon emissions during 2021–2035. The results showed that there had significant differences in water-energy consumption and carbon emissions of different land use types. The coupling coordination degree changed from the near imbalance state to the high-quality coordination level. The comprehensive scenario had the greatest potential for resource conservation and carbon emission reduction, and the peaks of water, energy and carbon emissions would appear in 2034, 2031 and 2029, respectively. In the future, implementing collaborative utilization planning of resources, promoting utilization efficiency of water and energy, and building a precise carbon emission assessment system should be adopted. This study improved carbon peak prediction by considering multi-elements, which helped providing practical references for promoting water-energy utilization efficiency and carbon emission reduction.