Probabilistic quantification of global drought risk amplification from temperature-enhanced evapotranspiration under climate change

IF 12.7 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

Geoscience frontiers Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-08 DOI:10.1016/j.gsf.2025.102235

Akinwale T. Ogunrinde , Paul Adigun , Xian Xue , Koji Dairaku , Sabab Ali Shah , Ifeoluwa S. Adawa

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Abstract

Droughts pose escalating threats to global water security, agriculture, and socioeconomic stability amid anthropogenic climate change, with projections indicating an increase in frequency, duration, and severity driven by altered precipitation patterns and amplified evaporative demand. This study introduces a probabilistic framework to quantify drought risk amplification, employing the Risk Ratio (RR) methodology integrated with extreme value theory and non-parametric inference. Utilizing multi-model ensemble (MME) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5), we evaluate changes in drought characteristics—duration, frequency, and severity — via the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) at 3- and 12-month timescales for near-future (NF) and far-future (FF) periods. Our analyses reveal pervasive global intensification, with over 90% of land grids exhibiting positive severity shifts under SSP5-8.5 in the FF, attributed to atmospheric evaporative demand, which accounts for approximately 44% of the trends in SPEI. Threshold-stratified RR assessments reveal nonlinear escalations at higher percentiles (P90 vs. P75), compressing the return periods of extreme events by 20%–30% under high-emission scenarios. Regional hotspots, including the Amazon basin, sub-Saharan Africa, southwestern North America, and Central Asian drylands, exhibit frequency risks that are 4-fold or more amplified, signaling transitions to chronic water stress and potential ecosystem tipping points. These findings underscore the dominance of thermodynamic drivers in drought dynamics, advocating for emissions mitigation to curtail risks by 15%–25% under moderate pathways. By addressing uncertainties in non-stationary regimes, this framework provides adaptive strategies for resilient water management, offering policymakers critical insights to mitigate cascading impacts on global food security and biodiversity in a warming world.

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气候变化下温度增强蒸散发对全球干旱风险放大的概率量化

在人为气候变化的背景下，干旱对全球水安全、农业和社会经济稳定构成的威胁不断升级，预测表明，由于降水模式的改变和蒸发需求的扩大，干旱的频率、持续时间和严重程度都会增加。本文采用风险比（RR）方法，结合极值理论和非参数推理，提出了干旱风险放大量化的概率框架。利用共享社会经济路径（SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5）下的耦合模式比对项目第6阶段（CMIP6）的多模式集成（MME），通过标准化降水蒸散指数（SPEI）在近未来（NF）和远未来（FF）时期的3个月和12个月时间尺度上评估了干旱特征的变化——持续时间、频率和严重程度。我们的分析揭示了普遍的全球强化，超过90%的陆地网格在FF的SSP5-8.5下表现出正的严重变化，这归因于大气蒸发需求，这占SPEI趋势的约44%。阈值分层RR评估显示，在高排放情景下，较高百分位数（P90 vs P75）的非线性上升，将极端事件的重现期压缩了20%-30%。包括亚马逊盆地、撒哈拉以南非洲、北美西南部和中亚旱地在内的区域热点地区，呈现出4倍或更多的频率风险，标志着向慢性水压力和潜在生态系统临界点的转变。这些发现强调了干旱动力学中热力学驱动因素的主导地位，主张在适度途径下减少排放，将风险降低15%-25%。通过解决非平稳机制中的不确定性，该框架为弹性水管理提供了适应性战略，为政策制定者提供了关键见解，以减轻全球变暖对全球粮食安全和生物多样性的连锁影响。

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来源期刊

Geoscience frontiers Earth and Planetary Sciences-General Earth and Planetary Sciences

CiteScore

17.80

自引率

3.40%

发文量

147

审稿时长

35 days

期刊介绍： Geoscience Frontiers (GSF) is the Journal of China University of Geosciences (Beijing) and Peking University. It publishes peer-reviewed research articles and reviews in interdisciplinary fields of Earth and Planetary Sciences. GSF covers various research areas including petrology and geochemistry, lithospheric architecture and mantle dynamics, global tectonics, economic geology and fuel exploration, geophysics, stratigraphy and paleontology, environmental and engineering geology, astrogeology, and the nexus of resources-energy-emissions-climate under Sustainable Development Goals. The journal aims to bridge innovative, provocative, and challenging concepts and models in these fields, providing insights on correlations and evolution.