Modelling sustainability of passenger fleet transition: Assessment of policy and environmental outcomes

IF 8.7 1区工程技术 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Transportation Research Part D-transport and Environment Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-18 DOI:10.1016/j.trd.2025.105152

Michael M. Aba , Vinicius Picanco Rodrigues , T.C. Wong , Ildo Luís Sauer , Paulo Gonçalves

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Being at the forefront of the global electric vehicle (EV) revolution with an amazing 96% of new electric car sales in 2024, it remains questionable if Norway can sustain this momentum over the long term. This study uses a system dynamics model to examine the key drivers of Norway’s transition to a zero-emission fleet, focusing on consumer behaviour, policy impacts, and energy-environmental outcomes. A key innovation is the integration of Hofstede’s cultural dimensions into the modeling of consumer behavior—an aspect overlooked in previous studies. Findings highlight the importance of vehicle range, affordability, and charging infrastructure. Sensitivity analysis emphasises the role of policy timing, infrastructure, and social influence in market dynamics. Scenario analysis predicts 97% EV sales by 2025 under current policies, with emissions declining by 59% by 2050. The study underscores the need for sustained incentives in the short term, infrastructure expansion, and technological innovation, offering insights for policymakers.

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客运机队转型的可持续性建模：政策和环境结果评估

作为全球电动汽车（EV）革命的前沿，挪威在2024年的新电动汽车销量中占据了惊人的96%，但挪威能否长期保持这种势头仍是个问题。本研究使用系统动力学模型来研究挪威向零排放车队过渡的关键驱动因素，重点关注消费者行为、政策影响和能源环境结果。一个关键的创新是将Hofstede的文化维度整合到消费者行为模型中，这是以前的研究忽视的一个方面。调查结果强调了车辆续航里程、可负担性和充电基础设施的重要性。敏感性分析强调政策时机、基础设施和社会影响在市场动态中的作用。情景分析预测，在现行政策下，到2025年电动汽车销量将达到97%，到2050年排放量将下降59%。该研究强调了短期内持续激励、基础设施扩建和技术创新的必要性，为政策制定者提供了见解。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Transportation Research Part D-transport and Environment 工程技术-运输科技

CiteScore

14.40

自引率

9.20%

发文量

314

审稿时长

39 days

期刊介绍： Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment focuses on original research exploring the environmental impacts of transportation, policy responses to these impacts, and their implications for transportation system design, planning, and management. The journal comprehensively covers the interaction between transportation and the environment, ranging from local effects on specific geographical areas to global implications such as natural resource depletion and atmospheric pollution. We welcome research papers across all transportation modes, including maritime, air, and land transportation, assessing their environmental impacts broadly. Papers addressing both mobile aspects and transportation infrastructure are considered. The journal prioritizes empirical findings and policy responses of regulatory, planning, technical, or fiscal nature. Articles are policy-driven, accessible, and applicable to readers from diverse disciplines, emphasizing relevance and practicality. We encourage interdisciplinary submissions and welcome contributions from economically developing and advanced countries alike, reflecting our international orientation.