Peste des petits ruminants cases in Nigeria: A 10-year retrospective study from 2015 to 2024.

Abstract

Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) is an endemic, transboundary animal disease (TAD) that affects small ruminants and threatens Nigeria's food and economic security. This study evaluated the PPR cases in Nigeria using data from the World Animal Health Information System (WAHIS). Secondary data of PPR (2015-2024) were analysed as descriptive statistics, and we forecasted PPR cases from 2025 to 2030. Our findings showed temporal variations in PPR reports and case trends, with more cases (reports) between 2020 and 2024. There were significant variations in PPR cases across the six agro-ecological zones of Nigeria (p = 0.025) and across the states (p  0.001). Bauchi (27.6%, n = 19 557/70 827) had over one-quarter of all national disease load, and Katsina had 9.6% (n = 6767/70 827) of the national PPR cases over the study period. Seven states had less than 50 cases, with Lagos and Ogun states having the lowest reports of PPR with 19 and 9 cases, respectively. Trend analysis forecasted an annual increase in the number of PPR cases, with at least 20 048 PPR cases in 2025, 22 838 cases in 2026, 25 737 cases in 2027, 28 745 cases in 2028, 31 860 cases in 2029, with the estimated number of cases rising to approximately 35 085 cases by 2030. The average case fatality rate for the 10 years was 14.1%. Hence, we estimated that at least 23 168 animals will be lost to PPR over the forecasted period.Contribution: The study emphasises the need for region-specific surveillance, targeted vaccination strategies, and predictive modelling tools for effective control and eradication efforts.