Assessing national climate-neutrality plans through a modelling nexus lens: the case of Greece.

Abstract

Achieving climate-neutrality is a global imperative, requiring interdisciplinarity and science-supported policies across multiple sectors. For the first time, we simulated a scenario representing Greece's climate-neutrality goals drawing upon its key energy, agricultural and water policies. Using a linked-nexus framework encompassing the FABLE Calculator, the Low Emissions Analysis Platform, the WaterReqGCH, LandReqCalcGCH, and BiofuelGCH tools, we find that Greece's climate-neutrality policies can deliver large emission reductions by 2050, only under optimistic implementation assumptions. The energy-related emissions can be reduced almost fivefold by 2050, and total energy demand by ~20%. Further improvements can be achieved if domestic biofuel production potential is realized. Sectoral interdependencies and infrastructure constraints are overlooked in existing policies, such as land requirements to meet renewables' expansion targets, and trade-offs among land-energy-water policies. Our findings indicate that progress towards climate-neutrality depends strongly on full, coordinated policy implementation, and we provide recommendations for a timely, unified and holistic sustainable transition.