Stochastic modelling of burden of livestock diseases on domestic ruminants in Ethiopia

IF 2.8 2区农林科学 Q1 VETERINARY SCIENCES

Preventive veterinary medicine Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-10 DOI:10.1016/j.prevetmed.2025.106761

Wudu T. Jemberu , Gemma Chaters , Theodore J.D. Knight-Jones , William Gilbert , Stephen Kwok , Mieghan Bruce , Benjamin Huntington , Jonathan Rushton

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Abstract

This study, carried out in 2022–2023, quantified the financial burden of disease in cattle, sheep and goats in Ethiopia for the year 2021 using the animal health loss envelope (AHLE) metric. The AHLE measures all cause disease burden, avoidable and non-avoidable, as the difference in the financial performance of a livestock production system (e.g., gross margin) comparing a scenario where animals are in an ideal state of health to the current situation. A stochastic dynamic population model (DPM) was employed to calculate the gross margin for an average farm and for the national herd under these current and ideal health scenarios. Data for parametrizing the DPM were derived from secondary sources and expert elicitation. The stochastic DPM was simulated for 10,000 iterations and results are reported as means with 95 % percentile intervals (PI). The annual AHLE per average farm was estimated at USD 1209 (95 %PI:392–2470) in cattle, USD 158 (95 %PI:66–292) in sheep and USD 416 (95 %PI:136–847) in goats. At national level, the annual AHLE in ruminants was USD 18.39 billion with USD 15.42 billion (95 % PI:12.70–18.57) in cattle, USD 1.04 billion (95 % PI:0.84–1.30) in sheep, and USD 1.93 billion (95 % PI:1.64–2.25) in goats. Morbidity losses constituted the largest component of the AHLE, exceeding 50 % across all species, while animal health expenditure represented the smallest component, accounting for less than 2 % of AHLE in all species. This high disease burden, with minimal contribution from animal health expenditure, indicates significant opportunity for improvement through investment in animal health.

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埃塞俄比亚国内反刍动物家畜疾病负担的随机模型。

这项研究于2022-2023年开展，利用动物健康损失包线（AHLE）指标量化了2021年埃塞俄比亚牛、绵羊和山羊的疾病经济负担。AHLE衡量可避免和不可避免的所有病因疾病负担，作为牲畜生产系统财务绩效（如毛利率）的差异，将动物处于理想健康状态的情景与当前状况进行比较。采用随机动态种群模型（DPM）计算了当前和理想健康状况下普通养殖场和全国牛群的毛利率。参数化DPM的数据来源于二手资料和专家的启发。随机DPM模拟了10,000次迭代，结果以95 %百分位间隔（PI）的平均值报告。平均每个农场的年度AHLE估计为牛1209美元（95 %PI:392-2470），绵羊158美元（95 %PI:66-292），山羊416美元（95 %PI:136-847）。在全国范围内，反刍动物年AHLE为183.9亿美元，其中牛为154.2亿美元（95 % PI:12.70 ~ 18.57），绵羊为10.4亿美元（95 % PI:0.84 ~ 1.30），山羊为19.3亿美元（95 % PI:1.64 ~ 2.25）。发病率损失是AHLE的最大组成部分，在所有物种中超过50% %，而动物卫生支出是最小的组成部分，占所有物种AHLE的不到2% %。在动物卫生支出贡献极小的情况下，这种高疾病负担表明，通过对动物卫生的投资，有很大的改善机会。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Preventive veterinary medicine 农林科学-兽医学

CiteScore

5.60

自引率

7.70%

发文量

184

审稿时长

3 months

期刊介绍： Preventive Veterinary Medicine is one of the leading international resources for scientific reports on animal health programs and preventive veterinary medicine. The journal follows the guidelines for standardizing and strengthening the reporting of biomedical research which are available from the CONSORT, MOOSE, PRISMA, REFLECT, STARD, and STROBE statements. The journal focuses on: Epidemiology of health events relevant to domestic and wild animals; Economic impacts of epidemic and endemic animal and zoonotic diseases; Latest methods and approaches in veterinary epidemiology; Disease and infection control or eradication measures; The "One Health" concept and the relationships between veterinary medicine, human health, animal-production systems, and the environment; Development of new techniques in surveillance systems and diagnosis; Evaluation and control of diseases in animal populations.