Assessing basin scale modelling for projecting storm surge extremes under climate change scenarios in northwest Ireland

IF 3.1 3区地球科学 Q2 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Ocean Modelling Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-03 DOI:10.1016/j.ocemod.2025.102660

Tasneem Ahmed , Andrea Cucco , Giovanni Quattrocchi , Leo Creedon , Iulia Anton , Michele Bendoni , Stefano Taddei , Carlo Brandini , Salem S Gharbia

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

This study evaluates the performance of the SHYFEM (System of HydrodYnamic Finite Element Modules) ocean model in simulating storm surges within Donegal Bay (northwest Ireland) for climate projection applications. A high-resolution Basin Scale Model (BSM) configuration of SHYFEM, spanning the North Atlantic is employed in barotropic mode accounting exclusively for atmospheric forcing with no tidal contribution included. To evaluate its accuracy, the BSM is compared against a Limited Area Model (LAM) configuration of SHYFEM implemented at the same study site.

The LAM includes tidal constituents through the downscaling of sea surface height (SSH) from a calibrated deep-water ocean model provided by the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS). Comparison is performed to quantify the impact of non-linear tide-surge interaction on residual water levels computation.

On average the LAM achieves 3 cm greater accuracy than the BSM in reproducing the time series of residual water levels measured by four tide gauges within the bay. Nevertheless, although both models tend to underestimate the extreme values, the BSM better captures the climatological statistics of storm surge events, closely matching the observed return levels associated with 5, 10, 25, and 50 year return periods.

Further improvements in return level estimates and residual water level error metrics are obtained through iterative calibration of main model parameters, validating the BSM’s effectiveness in simulating storm surges despite the absence of tide-surge interaction.

A Chi-squared significance test applied to tide gauge observations confirms that tide-surge interaction is statistically non-significant within Donegal Bay for surge thresholds at the 99th, 99.95th, and 99.99th percentiles. These findings support the use of BSM, driven exclusively with atmospheric fields (without including tides), for reliable simulation of storm surges and their climatological statistics in this region.

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评估在爱尔兰西北部气候变化情景下预测极端风暴潮的流域尺度模型

本研究评估了SHYFEM（水动力有限元模块系统）海洋模式在模拟多尼戈尔湾（爱尔兰西北部）风暴潮中的气候预测应用的性能。采用横跨北大西洋的高分辨率盆地尺度模式（BSM）配置，在正压模式下只考虑大气强迫，不包括潮汐贡献。为了评估其准确性，将BSM与在同一研究地点实施的SHYFEM的有限区域模型（LAM）配置进行了比较。通过哥白尼海洋环境监测服务（CMEMS）提供的校准深水海洋模型，通过降低海面高度（SSH）的比例，LAM包括潮汐成分。通过比较来量化非线性潮涌相互作用对剩余水位计算的影响。在重现湾内四个潮汐计所测得的剩余水位时间序列时，LAM的准确度比BSM平均高3厘米。然而，尽管两种模式都倾向于低估极端值，但BSM更好地捕捉了风暴潮事件的气候统计数据，与观测到的与5年、10年、25年和50年的回归期相关的回归水平密切匹配。通过对主要模型参数的迭代校准，进一步改进了回归水位估计和剩余水位误差指标，验证了BSM在没有潮涌相互作用的情况下模拟风暴潮的有效性。应用于验潮仪观测的卡方显著性检验证实，在第99、99.95和99.99百分位的潮涌阈值上，多尼戈尔湾内的潮涌相互作用在统计上不显著。这些发现支持使用仅由大气场（不包括潮汐）驱动的BSM来可靠地模拟该地区的风暴潮及其气候统计。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Ocean Modelling 地学-海洋学

CiteScore

5.50

自引率

9.40%

发文量

审稿时长

19.6 weeks

期刊介绍： The main objective of Ocean Modelling is to provide rapid communication between those interested in ocean modelling, whether through direct observation, or through analytical, numerical or laboratory models, and including interactions between physical and biogeochemical or biological phenomena. Because of the intimate links between ocean and atmosphere, involvement of scientists interested in influences of either medium on the other is welcome. The journal has a wide scope and includes ocean-atmosphere interaction in various forms as well as pure ocean results. In addition to primary peer-reviewed papers, the journal provides review papers, preliminary communications, and discussions.