Modeling critical raw materials in electric micromobility batteries in Finland

Abstract

Electric micromobility, or e-scooters and e-bikes, has undergone a rapid expansion in recent years. These micromobility devices, while lighter and less resource intensive than electric cars, still rely on different critical raw materials (CRMs). In this paper, we build a dynamic material flow model for shared e-scooters and private e-bikes in Finland, with an emphasis on their batteries, as they contain many CRMs. We combine this model with future scenarios for recycling efficiency and battery chemistries. The results show that the requirements of the European Battery Regulation concerning waste batteries can be met with reasonable end-of-life (EOL) collection rates (e.g., 57% of EOL e-bike batteries collected in 2028 and 67% in 2031). To satisfy the future demand of micromobility devices, the contribution of recycled materials from micromobility batteries can be substantial, over 95% for cobalt and nickel in 2035. This is because nickel manganese cobalt batteries are expected to be partly replaced by lithium iron phosphate batteries that do not require any cobalt or nickel. This evolution has the potential to increase the resilience of micromobility systems in cities by decreasing the reliance on the global supply chains of these elements. The main sources of uncertainty in our analysis are the lifetime of batteries and EOL collection and recovery rates.