Gas Prices As a Factor of Technology Competition in the Electric Power Industry and the Pace of Its Decarbonization: Sectoral, Intersectoral, and Macroeconomic Consequences
F. V. Veselov, V. A. Malakhov, A. A. Khorshev, T. V. Novikova
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Abstract
The results of modeling changes in the structure of electricity and district heat production on the horizon up to 2050 under the influence of scenarios of stagnation or rising gas prices in a wide range are presented. Estimates of changes in the cost-optimized scale of development of thermal power plants (TPPs) and their contribution to the production of electricity and centralized heat in Russia have been obtained. The influence of price scenarios in the gas market on the efficiency of the development of gas and coal-fired thermal power plants, including cogeneration (CHP), on the dynamics of increasing their energy efficiency, as well as on trends in reducing total greenhouse gas emissions from power plants, is analyzed. The dependencies of multidirectional changes in demand for gas and coal in the electric power industry and restrictions on the revenue growth of gas suppliers in the largest segment of the domestic market are obtained. The ranges of investment needs of the electric power industry and the required electricity prices are estimated. The effects of the transition to higher gas and electricity prices on the country’s GDP (including the impact of investment multipliers) have been determined using intersectoral multiagency models.
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