Assessing social-ecological system resilience and interaction mechanisms in the agro-pastoral ecotone using PSR and PVAR models: A case study of northern Hebei province

Abstract

Social-ecological system resilience (SESR) and its assessment are critical for achieving regional sustainable development in the agro-pastoral ecotone. This study integrates the adaptive cycle theory of SESR and the PSR model to develop an assessment system for SESR in the agro-pastoral ecotone. We quantitatively assessed the spatial and temporal changes in SESR in the agro-pastoral ecotone of northern Hebei Province from 2000 to 2020, exploring the interaction mechanisms and driving factors. Results indicate: (1) the SESR index and its coupling coordination degree increased steadily from 2000 to 2020, maintaining a favorably balanced state. A spatial pattern emerged with low in the northwest and high in the central and eastern regions, though the northwest showed a catching-up trend; (2) the self-reinforcing and time-lagged effects of pressure, state, and response were most significant. The positive influence of the state on response was more pronounced in high-SESR counties, while the interaction between pressure and response was more evident in low-SESR counties; (3) precipitation and NDVI were key single driving factors influencing the entire region, but the degree of relief had significantly higher explanatory power for low-SESR counties than for high-SESR counties. Human activity disturbance, interacting with other factors, exerts a greater impact on low-SESR counties, whereas landscape structure, interacting with other factors, has a stronger influence on high-SESR counties. This study highlights the differences in mechanisms and drivers between high-SESR and low-SESR counties, recommending differentiated enhancement of resilience in the agro-pastoral ecotone through spatial planning and matching key factors.