Time-series analysis of land use land cover change dynamics in Sukur Cultural Landscape, northeast Nigeria

Abstract

This study investigates trends of land use land cover (lulc) change in Sukur Cultural Landscape (hereafter Sukur). Sukur is a World Heritage Site located in Madagali Local Government Area of Adamawa State, Nigeria which was inscribed into the World Heritage List in 1999. Twenty-five (25) years after, this study aims to assess landscape changes in the face of recent natural and anthropogenic threats. In December 2014, Sukur was ravaged by armed conflict by insurgents. Moreover, the negative impacts of climate change are evident in some of the cultural features that make up the cultural landscape. The study employed the use of earth observation data from Google Earth Pro to perform land use and land cover change analyses. Satellite image data were accessed using the time slider tool in Google Earth Pro to extract images for four epochs - 2009, 2014, 2019 and 2023. Seven land use land cover types (bare land, built-up, cropland, footpath, terrace, tree, and water) were identified in this study and Random Forest machine learning algorithm was utilized in QGIS using EnMAP plugin to classify each land use and cover class of interest. Accuracy assessments were computed from confusion matrix, user accuracy, producer accuracy, overall accuracy and kappa coefficient. Change detection was then carried out using SCP plugin in QGIS to estimate how each land cover class changed for each epoch. The results of the analyses showed an expansion in built-up areas in all the epochs studied, reduction in vegetation between 2009 and 2014 and conversely, increase in cropland area through all the epochs which is attributable to anthropogenic factors of development and population growth. The main drivers of landscape change are increase in population, suburban development, lifestyle change and effect of climate change on the environment.