Evaluating uncertainty in global wave storm characteristics using CMIP6-derived wave climate simulations with SWAN and WAVEWATCH III models

IF 4.7 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL

Global and Planetary Change Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-03 DOI:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.105214

Rajesh Kumar , Khalid Amarouche , Adem Akpinar , Bahareh Kamranzad , Gil Lemos

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

This study evaluates the performance and uncertainties of two third-generation spectral wave models, SWAN and WW3, in simulating global wave storm characteristics, including mean and maximum storm wave heights, storm duration, and storm power. The models were forced with CMIP6-derived EC-Earth3 wind and sea ice data for 1984–2014 and validated against ERA5 reanalysis and in-situ buoy observations. Results show that SWAN model consistently underestimates storm wave height, particularly in tropical and high-energy regions, whereas WW3 aligns more closely with ERA5 but tends to overestimate storm wave heights and storm power in the Southern Ocean. Both models reproduce storm durations reasonably well, although WW3 exhibits fewer significant biases and narrower confidence intervals, reflecting higher reliability. Storm power analysis reveals SWAN's systematic underestimation and WW3's better overall performance, albeit with localized overestimations in extreme-energy basins. Comparisons with buoy data confirm WW3's improved accuracy in estimating storm durations and power, though challenges remain in replicating extreme wave heights. These findings underscore the inter-model uncertainty associated with different wave models and emphasize the need for refined wave model physics and regional calibration to improve the reliability of global wave-storm projections and better inform coastal planning and climate adaptation.

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用SWAN和WAVEWATCH III模式利用cmip6衍生的波浪气候模拟评估全球波浪风暴特征的不确定性

本研究评估了两种第三代谱波模式SWAN和WW3在模拟全球风暴特征（包括平均和最大风暴波高、风暴持续时间和风暴功率）方面的性能和不确定性。利用cmip6衍生的EC-Earth3 1984-2014年的风和海冰数据对模型进行了强迫，并与ERA5再分析和原位浮标观测进行了验证。结果表明，SWAN模式持续低估了风暴波高，特别是在热带和高能区域，而WW3模式与ERA5更接近，但倾向于高估南大洋的风暴波高和风暴功率。两种模式都能很好地再现风暴持续时间，尽管第三次世界大战表现出较少的显著偏差和较窄的置信区间，反映出更高的可靠性。风暴功率分析表明，SWAN的系统性低估和WW3的整体表现较好，尽管在极端能量盆地存在局部高估。与浮标数据的比较证实了WW3在估计风暴持续时间和功率方面的准确性提高，尽管在复制极端浪高方面仍然存在挑战。这些发现强调了与不同波浪模式相关的模式间不确定性，并强调了改进波浪模式物理和区域校准的必要性，以提高全球波浪风暴预测的可靠性，更好地为沿海规划和气候适应提供信息。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Global and Planetary Change 地学天文-地球科学综合

CiteScore

7.40

自引率

10.30%

发文量

226

审稿时长

63 days

期刊介绍： The objective of the journal Global and Planetary Change is to provide a multi-disciplinary overview of the processes taking place in the Earth System and involved in planetary change over time. The journal focuses on records of the past and current state of the earth system, and future scenarios , and their link to global environmental change. Regional or process-oriented studies are welcome if they discuss global implications. Topics include, but are not limited to, changes in the dynamics and composition of the atmosphere, oceans and cryosphere, as well as climate change, sea level variation, observations/modelling of Earth processes from deep to (near-)surface and their coupling, global ecology, biogeography and the resilience/thresholds in ecosystems. Key criteria for the consideration of manuscripts are (a) the relevance for the global scientific community and/or (b) the wider implications for global scale problems, preferably combined with (c) having a significance beyond a single discipline. A clear focus on key processes associated with planetary scale change is strongly encouraged. Manuscripts can be submitted as either research contributions or as a review article. Every effort should be made towards the presentation of research outcomes in an understandable way for a broad readership.