Understanding decision-maker needs for extreme event attribution science

Abstract

There is a proliferation of Extreme Event Attribution (EEA) science studies that quantify to what extent anthropogenic climate change influences extreme events. To date, no evidence explores how EEA may be used in decision-making contexts, across jurisdictions and governments, within Australia. Understanding this will allow targeted capability development, to ensure EEA supports effective climate risk decision-making. This study closes this knowledge gap and contributes to a novel understanding of EEA use and needs in a decision-making context within Australia, aligned with objectives: (1) Identifying decision-maker familiarity and use of EEA for extreme heat and rainfall events and (2) Understanding how decision-making needs for EEA vary across geographies, climates and jurisdictions. Forty-three diverse decision-makers were interviewed in Temperate South-Eastern and Tropical Northern regions of Australia, and at the federal level. Five key areas to improve EEA communication and increase uptake in decision-making contexts were identified under the categories: Language, Methodology, Impact Linkages, Action-Oriented Communication and Scientific Comprehension. Results demonstrate varied EEA needs across regions and scales, and reveal that despite high familiarity with EEA, it is not widely used for decision-making. Challenges preventing regional decision-maker use of EEA included few local level EEA studies, none available in Northern Australia and the need for improved EEA communication in this region. EEA is being used to increase climate risk understanding, but Action-Oriented Communication could allow EEA to also drive adaptation and mitigation decisions. Recognising and addressing the identified areas for improvement will strengthen EEA delivery to support diverse climate risk decision-making contexts.