Rising housing rents and migrants' marriage formation: Evidence from China

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of rising housing rents on marriage formation among migrants in urban China, a pressing issue in the context of the country's rapid urbanization and escalating housing market pressures. Using data from the multi-year China Migrants Dynamic Survey (CMDS), we adopt an instrumental variable (IV) approach to address potential endogeneity and mainly assess how increasing rental costs affect the timing of marriage and spouse selection among migrants. Our empirical findings reveal that rising housing rents significantly delay migrants' marriages and decrease their likelihood of marrying a native spouse. Specifically, a 10 % increase in housing rents postpones marriage by approximately half a year and decreases the likelihood of marrying a native spouse by 5.837 percentage points. These effects are more pronounced among lower-income and inter-provincial migrants. Besides, the delaying effect of rising rents is stronger for male migrants and for those who eventually marry native spouses. Moreover, rising rents significantly lower the overall likelihood of marriage entry among migrants. The study highlights the need to improve housing affordability and implement targeted support measures for vulnerable migrant populations to alleviate these impacts and promote more inclusive urban development.