Triglyceride–glucose index predicts early, short-term, and long-term mortality after transcatheter aortic valve replacement

Abstract

Background

Despite transforming care for severe aortic stenosis, TAVR is still followed by early and late mortality. The triglyceride–glucose (TyG) index, an insulin-resistance marker from routine triglyceride and glucose levels, may flag high-risk patients in Ashkenazi-Jewish and Mediterranean individuals. We examined whether baseline TyG predicts all-cause mortality at 30 days, 1 year, and 3 years post-TAVR.

Methods

We retrospectively studied patients with severe symptomatic aortic stenosis who underwent TAVR at a single tertiary center between 2010 and 2024. The TyG index was calculated from baseline triglyceride and glucose values. The primary endpoint was all-cause mortality at 1 year, with secondary endpoints of all-cause mortality at 30 days and 3 years. Cox proportional hazards models evaluated the association between TyG (per 1-unit increase) and mortality, adjusting for major clinical risk factors. Additionally, ROC curves were used to derive cohort-specific TyG thresholds for short-term and long-term mortality.

Results

Results: A total of 821 TAVR patients were included. All-cause mortality was 3.4 % at 30 days, 10.9 % at 1 year, and 19.7 % at 3 years. Higher baseline TyG was associated with significantly increased mortality risk at all time points. After multivariable adjustment, each 1-unit increase in TyG index conferred a higher hazard of 1-year death (adjusted HR 1.62, 95 % CI 1.21–2.16) and remained predictive of mortality at 30 days (HR 1.92, 95 % CI 1.08–3.42) and 3 years (HR 1.42, 95 % CI 1.14–1.77). ROC analysis identified distinct TyG thresholds for short-term and long-term outcomes, with an optimal cut-point of 9.012 for 30-day mortality, 9.15 for 1-year mortality, and 8.700 for 3-year mortality.

Conclusions

Baseline TyG index is an independent predictor of early, short-term, and long-term mortality after TAVR. The identification of cohort-specific TyG cut-points highlights population-specific metabolic risk calibration and supports the use of TyG as a simple and informative biomarker for refining risk stratification and follow-up intensity in TAVR recipients.