Forecasting Chinese outbound tourism recovery: A Triple-layer forecast combination framework

IF 8.1 1区管理学 Q1 HOSPITALITY, LEISURE, SPORT & TOURISM

Annals of Tourism Research Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-04 DOI:10.1016/j.annals.2025.104079

Hanyuan Zhang , Ying Liu , Xinyang Liu , Anyu Liu , Vera Shanshan Lin

引用次数: 0

Abstract

Forecast combinations became particularly significant in the post-pandemic era due to heightened uncertainty. This study introduces a Triple-layer Forecast Combination Framework to predict Chinese outbound tourism recovery from August 2023 to July 2024 across 20 destinations. The framework integrates baseline quantitative models, expert-based model selection, and real-time judgmental adjustments to enhance forecast accuracy in post-crisis contexts. Results show Chinese visitor arrivals rebounding, on average, to 80% of July 2019 levels by mid-2024, with East and Southeast Asia—particularly Hong Kong SAR, Macao SAR, and Thailand—recovering faster than long-haul markets such as Hawaii, Canada, and the Czech Republic. By combining statistical rigor with contextual insight, the framework supports replicable, adaptive forecasting under uncertainty for tourism recovery planning.

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中国出境旅游复苏预测：一个三层预测组合框架

在大流行后时代，由于不确定性增加，预测组合变得尤为重要。本研究采用三层预测组合框架，对2023年8月至2024年7月20个目的地的中国出境旅游复苏情况进行了预测。该框架整合了基线定量模型、基于专家的模型选择和实时判断调整，以提高后危机背景下的预测准确性。结果显示，到2024年中期，中国游客人数平均反弹至2019年7月水平的80%，东亚和东南亚——尤其是香港特别行政区、澳门特别行政区和泰国——的复苏速度快于夏威夷、加拿大和捷克共和国等长途市场。通过将统计严谨性与上下文洞察力相结合，该框架支持在不确定性下可复制的、自适应的旅游恢复规划预测。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Annals of Tourism Research Multiple-

CiteScore

19.10

自引率

9.10%

发文量

135

审稿时长

42 days

期刊介绍： The Annals of Tourism Research is a scholarly journal that focuses on academic perspectives related to tourism. The journal defines tourism as a global economic activity that involves travel behavior, management and marketing activities of service industries catering to consumer demand, the effects of tourism on communities, and policy and governance at local, national, and international levels. While the journal aims to strike a balance between theory and application, its primary focus is on developing theoretical constructs that bridge the gap between business and the social and behavioral sciences. The disciplinary areas covered in the journal include, but are not limited to, service industries management, marketing science, consumer marketing, decision-making and behavior, business ethics, economics and forecasting, environment, geography and development, education and knowledge development, political science and administration, consumer-focused psychology, and anthropology and sociology.