Dynamic effects of EU economic sanctions on the EU-Russian energy market: Evidence on crude oil and natural gas

IF 9.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Policy Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-06 DOI:10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114996

Diana Chen, Xiaohong Yu, Eduardo Pardo-Piñashca

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

The rise of economic sanctions on Russia has exposed critical vulnerabilities in the EU energy systems. In this context, the study analyzes the dynamic effects of EU economic sanctions against Russia on crude oil price, natural gas price, and EU dependence on Russian crude oil and natural gas. The study introduces a novel Economic Sanction Effectiveness index composed of sanction type, economic leverage, media effect, and time decay. Incorporating this index in the SVAR model, the results show: (1) crude oil and natural gas prices rise after a sanction shock, then fall below their baseline; (2) following a sanction shock, EU dependence on Russian crude oil falls quickly and continues to decline during the first year; (3) EU dependence on Russian natural gas shows no immediate effect after the sanction shock, but begins to decrease after three months; (4) economic sanctions account for up to 30 % and 40 % of the fluctuations of EU dependence on Russian natural gas and crude oil; (5) historical decomposition highlights the implementation of the oil price cap as a key event that shifted the impact of sanction shocks. Overall, the results offer valuable empirical insights for policymakers regarding the implications of sanctions on energy markets.

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欧盟经济制裁对欧盟-俄罗斯能源市场的动态影响：基于原油和天然气的证据

对俄罗斯经济制裁的增加暴露了欧盟能源体系的严重脆弱性。在此背景下，本研究分析了欧盟对俄罗斯经济制裁对原油价格、天然气价格以及欧盟对俄罗斯原油和天然气依赖程度的动态影响。提出了一种由制裁类型、经济杠杆、媒介效应和时间衰减组成的经济制裁有效性指标。将该指标纳入SVAR模型，结果表明：(1)原油和天然气价格在制裁冲击后先上涨，然后回落到基线以下；(2)在制裁冲击之后，欧盟对俄罗斯原油的依赖迅速下降，并在第一年继续下降；(3)欧盟对俄罗斯天然气的依赖在制裁冲击后不会立即产生影响，但在3个月后开始下降；(4)经济制裁在欧盟对俄罗斯天然气和原油依赖的波动中所占比例分别高达30%和40%；(5)历史分解表明，油价上限的实施是改变制裁冲击影响的关键事件。总体而言，研究结果为政策制定者提供了有关制裁对能源市场影响的宝贵经验见解。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Energy Policy 管理科学-环境科学

CiteScore

17.30

自引率

5.60%

发文量

540

审稿时长

7.9 months

期刊介绍： Energy policy is the manner in which a given entity (often governmental) has decided to address issues of energy development including energy conversion, distribution and use as well as reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in order to contribute to climate change mitigation. The attributes of energy policy may include legislation, international treaties, incentives to investment, guidelines for energy conservation, taxation and other public policy techniques. Energy policy is closely related to climate change policy because totalled worldwide the energy sector emits more greenhouse gas than other sectors.