Flexible operation of virtual power plant enabled integrated electricity-heating system under multiple uncertainties via distributionally robust model predictive control

IF 12.2 1区工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS

Applied Energy Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-06 DOI:10.1016/j.apenergy.2025.127177

Xiaobin Wang , Qi Li , Junyi Zhai , Yuning Jiang , Sheng Wang , Jianxiao Wang

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Virtual power plant (VPP) can incorporate various electric infrastructures, e.g., data centers (DCs) and electric vehicles (EVs), creating multiple uncertainties and challenges for the operation of integrated electricity–heating system (IEHS). This paper focuses on the flexible operation problem of VPP-enabled IEHS under both static and dynamic uncertainties. First, the temporal shifting flexibility of workloads from DCs is modeled. Second, a novel metric-based distributionally robust model predictive control (DRMPC) framework is introduced to address both static uncertainties from renewable energy and dynamic uncertainties from EV charging behaviors. Third, the dynamic uncertainties are reformulated as ambiguity tubes, and distributionally robust bounds for both dynamic and static uncertainties are determined using DRMPC. Through ambiguity tubes and distributionally robust optimization, the stochastic MPC system is converted into a nominal one. Case studies validate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

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通过分布鲁棒模型预测控制，实现了多不确定条件下虚拟电厂综合供热系统的柔性运行

虚拟电厂（VPP）可以整合各种电力基础设施，例如数据中心（DCs）和电动汽车（ev），这给综合电热系统（IEHS）的运行带来了多重不确定性和挑战。研究了基于vpp的IEHS在静态和动态两种不确定性下的柔性运行问题。首先，对数据中心工作负载的时间转移灵活性进行了建模。其次，提出了一种基于度量的分布式鲁棒模型预测控制（DRMPC）框架，以解决来自可再生能源的静态不确定性和来自电动汽车充电行为的动态不确定性。第三，将动态不确定性重新表述为模糊管，并利用DRMPC确定了动态不确定性和静态不确定性的分布鲁棒界。通过模糊管和分布鲁棒优化，将随机MPC系统转化为标称系统。案例研究验证了所提出方法的有效性。

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来源期刊

Applied Energy 工程技术-工程：化工

CiteScore

21.20

自引率

10.70%

发文量

1830

审稿时长

41 days

期刊介绍： Applied Energy serves as a platform for sharing innovations, research, development, and demonstrations in energy conversion, conservation, and sustainable energy systems. The journal covers topics such as optimal energy resource use, environmental pollutant mitigation, and energy process analysis. It welcomes original papers, review articles, technical notes, and letters to the editor. Authors are encouraged to submit manuscripts that bridge the gap between research, development, and implementation. The journal addresses a wide spectrum of topics, including fossil and renewable energy technologies, energy economics, and environmental impacts. Applied Energy also explores modeling and forecasting, conservation strategies, and the social and economic implications of energy policies, including climate change mitigation. It is complemented by the open-access journal Advances in Applied Energy.