Assessing policies for health impact and cost reduction from PM2.5 formation

Abstract

Fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) poses significant health and economic burdens, particularly in developing regions, such as Southeast Asia. This study assesses the health impacts and economic costs of PM_2.5 formation in Thailand and evaluates mitigation policies to reduce these effects by 2037. Analyses at the city to national level examine major emission sources, including road transport, industry, power generation, household activities, open burning of agricultural waste, livestock, fertilizer application, and forest fires. Without intervention, health impacts are projected to increase by 22 % from 2022 levels, reaching 403,373 disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) annually and resulting in an economic burden of 301 billion Thai Baht (THB) per year. Scenario analysis identifies the best integrated mitigation strategy, which includes E-Buses, reducing energy consumption in industry and power generation, banning agricultural residue open burning, and decreasing forest fire hotspots. This strategy could reduce health impacts by up to 70 % and could yield an economic benefit of approximately 211 billion THB annually. A ban on agricultural burning is identified as one of the most effective interventions, potentially eliminating 38 % of the health burden in Thailand. Findings highlight the urgency of comprehensive, multi-sectoral policies to mitigate PM_2.5 pollution, with emphasis on agricultural waste management and enhanced emission controls. These insights provide a framework for other Southeast Asian countries facing similar air pollution challenges.