Swift quantitative risk assessment and multi-criteria decision analysis on main food-borne pathogens in market food in Zhejiang Province, China

Abstract

Food-borne diseases caused by pathogens are a global public health concern. The positive detection rate (%) and arithmetic mean of seven pathogens in common foods were collected by the China National Foodborne Diseases Surveillance Network from 2019 to 2023, and the number of cases and population incidence were calculated by combining the pathogen concentration and food consumption data of 10,753 people in 20 townships in Zhejiang Province using a swift quantitative risk assessment model. The estimated case number was 1,504,937, and the incidence rate was 0.03 episodes per person-year. The pathogen-food product combinations with the highest number of cases were Vibrio parahemolyticus-marine fish, Staphylococcus aureus-cooked meat products, and Vibrio parahemolyticus-marine shellfish. Marine fish, Chinese salads, and cooked meat products were the top three high-risk food types. Vibrio parahemolyticus, Staphylococcus aureus, and Bacillus cereus were the dominant pathogens. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) method presented more informative pathogen-food combinations ranking compared to the sQMRA model. Vibrio parahaemolyticusaureus-marine fishes, Vibrio parahaemolyticusaureus-fresh water products, and Vibrio parahaemolyticusaureus-marine shellfish were ranked as the top combinations. These results demonstrate that there should be a greater focus on improving the active surveillance system and quantitative risk assessment methods of related food-pathogen combinations in formulating scientific public health policy.