Future redistribution of Hovenia acerba Lindl. in China under climate change

Abstract

Hovenia acerba Lindl. is valued for its medicinal properties and role in maintaining ecosystem integrity, particularly through soil stabilization. However, climate change poses significant challenges to its natural distribution. This study employed an optimized Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model alongside BCC-CSM2-MR climate projections to predict the impacts of climate change on the distribution of H. acerba in China and to identify key environmental determinants. We found that precipitation in the driest month (Bio14) and minimum temperature of the coldest month (Bio6) are the primary factors governing its distribution. Under current climatic conditions, the potential suitable habitat for H. acerba covers approximately 29.15 % of China's land area. Future projections indicate a consistent expansion of suitable habitats under all climate scenarios, with a notable northwestward shift in the distribution centroid from Hunan to Hubei Province. These findings highlight the resilience of H. acerba to climate change and provide critical insights for its conservation and sustainable management under future climatic conditions.