Rolling back the tides: Impact of droughts on crop diversification and cropland expansion

Abstract

We examine the impact of droughts on crop yields and forward-looking adaptive responses to extreme temperatures such as crop diversification and the adoption of climate-resilient crop varieties. We also investigate cropland adjustments in responding to past droughts. To do this, we combine panel data from 2012 to 2019 with satellite data on drought conditions. We also consider households' self-reported drought experiences. By estimating econometric models, we find that droughts lead to yield reductions with the most significant impact on beans (9.5 %), groundnuts (7.2 %), and maize (6.0 %). In response to past droughts, households cultivate more diverse crops with a lower tendency for crop concentration and specialization. Furthermore, households are increasingly turning to climate-resilient crop varieties with a 15 percentage point increase in adoption. These climate-resilient crop varieties are bred to withstand the threats posed by drought conditions as well as a range of climate change-induced pests and diseases. In response to droughts, households expand total cultivated land by about 11–18 %, thus balancing yield losses with increased land use. This is particularly the case for some crops like sorghum, cowpea and soybeans where we find an increase in acreage shares indicating relative dominance and competitiveness. Household perceptions of droughts correspond well with objective drought measures showing consistent implications on yields, diversification, adoption of resilient seeds and cropland expansion.