Forecasting for monetary policy

IF 7.1 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

International Journal of Forecasting Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-09 DOI:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2025.05.003

Laura Coroneo

引用次数: 0

Abstract

This paper discusses three key themes in forecasting for monetary policy highlighted in the Bernanke (2024) review: the challenges in economic forecasting, the conditional nature of central bank forecasts, and the importance of forecast evaluation. In addition, a formal evaluation of the Bank of England’s inflation forecasts indicates that, despite the large forecast errors in recent years, they were still accurate relative to common benchmarks.

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货币政策预测

本文讨论了伯南克（2024）评论中强调的货币政策预测的三个关键主题：经济预测中的挑战、央行预测的条件性质以及预测评估的重要性。此外，对英国央行（Bank of England）通胀预测的正式评估表明，尽管近年来预测误差很大，但相对于普通基准而言，它们仍然是准确的。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

International Journal of Forecasting Multiple-

CiteScore

17.10

自引率

11.40%

发文量

189

审稿时长

77 days

期刊介绍： The International Journal of Forecasting is a leading journal in its field that publishes high quality refereed papers. It aims to bridge the gap between theory and practice, making forecasting useful and relevant for decision and policy makers. The journal places strong emphasis on empirical studies, evaluation activities, implementation research, and improving the practice of forecasting. It welcomes various points of view and encourages debate to find solutions to field-related problems. The journal is the official publication of the International Institute of Forecasters (IIF) and is indexed in Sociological Abstracts, Journal of Economic Literature, Statistical Theory and Method Abstracts, INSPEC, Current Contents, UMI Data Courier, RePEc, Academic Journal Guide, CIS, IAOR, and Social Sciences Citation Index.