A cost model for road public transport sensitive to the operating program

Abstract

Most models for estimating the cost per kilometer of local public transport (LPT) do not include variables attributable to the service operating program (SOP), that is the document showing lines, routes, stops, rides and related timetables. Therefore, by these tools it is not possible to take into account the impact, on the unit cost, of the different use of drivers and vehicles resulting from the number and time of the rides performed. This work, to overcome this important limitation proposes a modification, applicable to most existing models already including the other variables that most affect the cost. In particular, a statistical relationship has been built as a function of the descriptive variables of the SOP known to all, capable of providing a factor K that, multiplied by the value of the cost derived from any model, allows it to be corrected as a result of the specific characteristics of the SOP. The methodology developed is of general validity. The model built for the calculation of K has been calibrated on a regional LPT service offered in an area with weak demand. A specific recalibration would allow to use it in areas different in size, type and characteristics of transport demand and supply.